Earthquake, refugees, Assad may be the keys to Türkiye’s elections

Türkiye’s Elections: The Economy, Assad and the Earthquake

The race between incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his opponent, opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, is very close, according to the Al-Monitor/Primus poll published this week.

The economy, corruption and refugees are top concerns for voters, and it is hard to imagine Erdogan winning the hearts and minds of the former. Mustafa Sonmez followed the economic crisis, including massive inflation, skyrocketing food and energy prices, and high unemployment, which dominated the campaign.

A former senior diplomat with experience in Turkey noted to Al-Monitor, “What has now become a current account problem will turn into a balance of payments crisis, if there is no change in fiscal or monetary policy,” implying a shift away from Erdogan’s economy. program.

While the economy is deteriorating under Erdogan, it is also not clear whether Kilicdaroglu has captivated voters with his call for a return to the orthodox economy.

“Seen as inexperienced and at least by some as weak, Kilicdaroglu’s six-party right-left coalition is unlikely to deliver a strong government,” said James Jeffrey, who served as Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIS. . Iraq and the Levant, in remarks to Al-Monitor after his recent return from Türkiye.

Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu agree, in principle, that it may be in Turkey’s interest to bury the hatchet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to facilitate the return of the 3.6 million Syrian refugees in Turkey. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been pressing for Assad and Erdogan to mend relations for years, and meetings between Russian, Turkish and Syrian officials have recently gained some momentum. The Syrian Kurds, not wanting to be left behind, offered their peace initiative to Damascus, as reported by Amberen Zaman.

Assad, for his part, is in no hurry, enjoying a parade of suitors calling for his re-entry into the Arab League, and insisting that Erdogan take the first step by ending the occupation of northern Syria by Turkish and Turkish proxy forces.

“It’s very unlikely that Assad will change his mind, even after the election. I don’t think there’s anything there. He’s happy to rule over the rubble,” said Jeffrey, who also served as the US ambassador to Turkey.

For now at least, Erdogan’s interest in this issue appears to be driven mostly by the elections. He hopes his star turn in global diplomacy, including helping to broker the Black Sea Grain Initiative between Russia and Ukraine last year, will convince voters that he is the one negotiating the return of Syrian refugees, which has been a burden on the Turkish economy.

The prospects for a Syrian-Turkish deal are slim and would be risky for Ankara, whoever wins the election. Assad and Putin are not the preferred guarantors of an arrangement with such high stakes. But if the pieces finally come together, it will be a game-changer in the Middle East, effectively closing the chapter that began with the popular demonstrations against Assad in 2011.

If Erdoğan loses what appears to be a close election, it will be because he could not escape the devastating earthquakes that hit Turkey and Syria in February.

As we wrote then, natural disasters are, by far, more costly to democracies than dictatorships.

“Turkey being reasonably democratic puts Erdogan and the AKP at great risk,” said Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, co-author with Alistair Smith of the bestselling The Dictator’s Handbook: Why Bad Behavior Is Always Good Policy.

The timing of the earthquake, just three months before a close election, could not have been worse for Erdogan. Some in his inner circle have even considered postponing the elections. Moreover, the earthquake struck Erdogan’s base. Of the ten most affected Turkish provinces, seven (Adiyaman, Malatya, Kilis, Gaziantep, Kahramanmaras, Osmaniye, Sanliurfa) are controlled by mayors from Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party. A government-appointed regent controls Diyarbakir. and only two (Adana and Hatay) are run by the opposition party.

Erdoğan’s quake dilemma stands in contrast to Assad’s, with no pending elections or accountability to his people. For the Syrian dictator, the earthquake was a windfall, which led to the rehabilitation of the government in Arab circles.

Erdogan has pledged to create a multi-billion dollar fund to rebuild the earthquake-affected areas, but the task is daunting, Sonmez reports. The United Nations estimates the damage at more than $100 billion. More than 50,000 people were killed in the earthquakes. 1.5 million live in temporary shelter; And 2 million displaced.

Sonmez writes that the fund is “a message that Ankara is now prioritizing the country’s earthquake problem and allocating private resources to recovery efforts. However, many feel there is an additional purpose in the run-up to the elections: offering money for reconstruction and related spending on the campaign trail in an effort to win over frustrated earthquake victims.”

The Al-Monitor/Brims poll revealed that about half of potential voters lost confidence in the government after the earthquake. If Erdoğan wins on May 14, he will have weathered one of the biggest shocks of his or any campaign.

Improved relations between Iran and the GCC countries indicate energy cooperation

Bijan Khajpour wrote for Al-Monitor Pro this week that the Iranian-Saudi rapprochement could usher in a new era of cooperation in the energy sector.

Much has been written about the impact of the agreement on regional files, such as Syria and Yemen, and what it means for both the American and Chinese roles in the region.

But there is more to the story.

“A change in political will and an increase in commercial justification will shape the new patterns of interaction between the oil sectors of Iran and the GCC countries, but it will be a slow process,” Khajpour writes.

Five of the Gulf states – Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait – are members of OPEC and have cooperated within the organization in the past, despite political differences. While crude oil offers limited opportunities for cooperation, the shift towards more refined petroleum and petrochemical products increases trade and investment potential.

Iran is looking to expand cooperation in the gas sector. Iran has proven to be an important source of gas and energy for Iraq, and with an improved political climate, Iranian gas could also flow to other regional markets, Khajpour wrote. In addition to the gas field shared with Qatar, Iran is seeking to build on export opportunities in Oman, for example.

Khaffour writes that the process will be gradual, as the Gulf countries will initially look for trade and product exchange, and then consider more advanced joint projects and joint investments.

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