Scientists cannot predict earthquakes

Claim: It is possible to predict earthquakes.

AP Rating: False. Experts say earthquakes are unpredictable. Scientists already calculate the probability of earthquakes in different regions and early warning systems can detect earthquakes that have already begun. But there is no way to accurately predict where and when earthquakes will occur.

The facts: Supposed “predictions” of upcoming earthquakes are routinely circulated on social media, with posts suggesting they are scientifically correct.

For example, a Facebook user wrote on Wednesday: “Urgent: A warning has been issued for a large earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or higher, likely to occur in the San Francisco Bay Area on May 1st or May 2nd.”

But no scientific or government agency has issued any such warning, and predicting an earthquake is impossible, experts previously told The Associated Press. According to the US Geological Survey, no scientists ever predicted a major earthquake.

“There is no science, magic or magic right now that makes one be able to predict when an earthquake will occur in a given window,” said Michel Bruno, a University at Buffalo professor and expert in earthquake engineering. “Currently, scientists cannot predict earthquakes at an exact date.”

“We don’t understand some of the basic physics of earthquakes,” said Egil Hoxon, a professor of geophysics at Caltech. “It has not yet been possible to know when the earthquake will occur.”

Scientists estimate the probability of earthquakes occurring in certain areas during certain time frames, according to the USGS.

“You can still do averages. You can still run the statistics,” Bruno said. “You can say, what is the return period between small, medium, and large earthquakes, and then run a statistical analysis through it all.”

Earthquake early warning systems are operational in some US states and several others, including Mexico, Japan, Turkey, Italy and Taiwan, according to the USGS. These systems quickly detect and track earthquakes to provide ground-shaking warnings. The “seconds to tens of seconds advance warning” provided by the systems can prompt people to protect lives and property from vibration, but these warnings are not predictions.

“Scientists have tried every possible method of trying to predict earthquakes,” said Bruno. “Nobody has been able to crack it and come up with a credible prediction.”

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This is part of the AP’s efforts to tackle widely shared misinformation, including working with outside companies and organizations to add factual context to misleading content circulating online. Learn more about AP fact-checking.

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