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After 15 years, low intensity tremors are experiencing shaky Kashmir land

 


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The earthquake debris scene 2005

The stunning scenery shook by the 2005 earthquake has already experienced about 40 low-intensity tremors since the start of the disastrous year of 2020. Repeated but not turbulent statesmen force experts to reveal that the Kashmir valley with the fossilized past is not ready to face any major vibration at present.

Written by Swati Joshi

Just before the 7.6-magnitude earthquake could bother Kashmir in the fall of 2005, Andrabi, 39, was speaking accidentally with his friends in his hometown of Srinagar. But when the ground shook beneath his feet, he saw his petrified family members and neighbors get out of their homes by grabbing their hands, beating their chests, and praying with their shaky lips.

Many wept, some stood up to what seemed to be a parting embrace, yet most were hoping against hope.

Andrabi, a software engineer, remembers the day he was shaking with his life: “Nobody slept that night.” “I have never had a severe earthquake in my life like I did that day. These periodic aftershocks hit everyone in this painful fall.”

What surprised him on that day were the dilapidated structures of his neighbors in the city center.

“On that day, most of us thought they would collapse as a bundle of cards any time soon and bury us alive,” Andrabi narrated the previous horror in vivid detail.

“But everyone asks, while some new concrete structures have developed cracks, these old structures are still strong.

Even today, while low intensity tremors shake the valley and remember much of this devastating fall, those heritage structures still remain.

With a grim reminder, many wonder: Has Kashmir learned its lessons fifteen years after the nightmare of the earthquake that devastated parts of border Kashmir – with the largest burden of Kashwar and Paramulla in Kashmir bearing the brunt?

In response to the fire, the coalition government between the PDP and Congress decided to use earthquake-resistant materials to construct the buildings.

“But the effect did not last long,” said Saleem Pak, organizer of the Indian National Fund for Arts and Cultural Heritage (INTACH), for Kashmir Observer.

Blast from the past

He said that people who live in rural areas get permission from the Panchayat Village for any construction activities, because they don’t even know about earthquake-resistant materials.

“Since Kashmir has faced a devastating earthquake in the past, it must be well prepared, but even the basic minimum has not been done since 2005,” Bigg said.

Although the epicenter of the October 8, 2005 earthquake was Muzaffarabad, it affected many parts of Kashmir.

Tangadhar in Kupwara and Uri in Baramulla were the hardest hit cities in the valley.

According to the 2019 Earthquake Risk Index report, about 1,500 deaths and 4,550 buildings in Kashmir were reported as a result of the 2005 earthquake.

The report blamed the “poor performance” of construction for the massive destruction.

However, the report praised the unique construction of Kashmir – DJI Dewari – for showing “a very good seismic performance”.

Earthquake antidote

Dhajji Diwari is a traditional earthquake-resistant building method in which wooden frames are used for building structures. The areas in the frame are filled with stones or bricks and glued to clay mortar.

This 200-year-old construction technology gained wide recognition after the 2005 Kashmir earthquake.

This traditional form of construction was safer due to the presence of “wooden beams on each floor connecting walls with floors with no sudden stops or differences in rigidity in the membranes that act as an earthquake-resistant structure” in contrast to the current form of construction is weak, solid and hard, claims a study conducted by the researcher acceptable Yousuf.

The basic framework for Dajji Diwari

The study indicates that since Kashmir did not experience a major earthquake after 2005, the structures in the valley are unplanned, weak and insecure, mostly built “without knowing the severe future earthquakes in this region.”

Infrastructure in present-day Kashmir remains the Achilles heel.

“If he was dreary at the time [in 2005]Salim Bey emphasized, “It is disastrous now!”

With the Kashmir population growing to around 7 million, the traditional structures in the valley have been replaced by modern non-scientific structures that lack earthquake immunity.

“A seven-storey hospital was built in Rabigh,” said Bigg. “It is a major residential area where there is no space for an ambulance to take place. Such random construction takes place in the valley, where is the regulatory mechanism?”

Having suffered massive shocks before, Page said, the government had to implement strict laws prohibiting construction activities that were not enough to withstand earthquakes.

Pig stressed that “an awareness campaign will not prevent people from building their homes with modern, unscientific technologies.” Awareness is not a substitute for law.

He suggested that the regulations make people aware and the government should be quick to use a regulatory mechanism.

In order to understand official preparedness, Kashmir Observer approached disaster management and other allied bodies. However, repeated attempts to clarify any response on the basis in the wake of any major earthquake in the valley.

Killer sites

Kashmir is located in the fifth earthquake zone and is the most active region in terms of earthquakes where some strong earthquakes have occurred in the past.

Since January 2020, 37 small earthquakes have struck the Jammu and Kashmir region, according to data available on the website of the National Seismology Center.

“The epicenter of these earthquakes is on the northwestern and southeastern sides of the valley,” said Dr. Afroz Ahmed Shah, Assistant Professor of Structural Geology at the University of Brunei Darussalam.

He said that some of these earthquakes may be linked to local active faults, and some are tearing front parts in the rear.

The professor explained that the error is a fracture in the Earth’s crust formed by the pressure caused by tectonic plate motions. He said that this movement may occur quickly in the form of an earthquake.

Dr. Shah said: “Since these earthquakes are small, it will be difficult to know any part of the error that affected them.”

When asked about the cause of repeated earthquakes in the valley, the young professor said that India collides with the Eurasian plate that causes earthquakes.

“Kashmir is located at the point where the Indian plate meets the Eurasian plate,” he said.

“The collision between the plates led to the formation of the Himalayas, which made the area vulnerable to seismic activity. The plate movements create enormous pressure to accumulate along the faults that sometimes trigger earthquakes of accumulated stress.

Amidst the low-intensity tremors in the valley, people suspect that frequent aftershocks – earthquakes that occur before the main tremor – may be the precursor to an earthquake with more force.

Dr. explained. Shah, explaining that, previous studies have shown that some aftershocks may last for years, and it is still not possible to distinguish the major aftershock from aftershocks.

“Not every earthquake comes with a warning bullet,” he said. “Some major earthquakes occurred without any tremors at all.”

The professor stressed that describing such events as a prelude to the main event is incorrect.

Shah said that given the earthquakes that occurred from 1970 until now (as the colored circles filled in in the picture above show), most earthquakes hit parts of the northeast and southwestern Kashmir region.

“This means that the earthquake really happened, but distinguishing between aftershocks and major tremors has always been a difficult task.”

Besides Kashmir, Delhi also has been experiencing frequent tremors recently. When asked about the similarities between small earthquakes in both regions, Dr. Shah explained that the earthquakes in Delhi and Kashmir occurred on two different systems.

He said: “The Delhi earthquakes occurred in the Indian tectonic plates and away from the margin of the plates that characterize the major / active frontal Himalayan movement (MHT / MFT).”

The professor explained that the MHT / MFT error is the smallest and also absorbs about half of the regional tectonic convergence between the Indian plate and southern Tibet, which poses a severe earthquake and risk to millions of people who live near it.

When asked about the susceptibility of Kashmir to earthquakes compared to other regions that are located in the fifth seismic region, Dr. Shah said that Kashmir is prone to earthquakes, but to say that it is more vulnerable to earthquakes may be difficult to answer.

Dr. Shah explained that “this needs full information on the accumulation of stress on defects and the drawing of unknown defects and how defects are torn in the past.”

But these details are largely missing.

The Himalayan Geological Rift System is the largest and fastest continental seismic force that slides from Pakistan through India and Nepal, covering a distance of about 2500 km along the southern side of the Himalayas.

He continued d. Shah that the full extent of the error is active and capable of causing major earthquakes, but the timing is still uncertain.

Earthquake-filled earthquakes in the image of the Google satellite above occurred in the eastern part of Kashmir. The data is extracted from the IRIS Earthquake browser

The professor said: “Seismic regions maps change as new errors are discovered, so I will not rely entirely on such maps.”

“California maps use advanced and reliable seismic scenario where every error is marked.”

Dr. explained. Shah clarify the nature of malfunctions, that malfunctions work as a family where each individual behaves differently, and to better understand mistakes, the whole family system must be understood.

“Kashmir is still in the difficult phase of seismological research and we have to work hard to meet California or Japan standards,” said the professor.

However, according to various studies, the earthquake risk in Kashmir is real, and the region may experience a major earthquake in the future.

Dr. Shah said: “But one cannot predict the correct timing.”

“The best treatment is to prepare for any eventuality. Unfortunately, there are no preparations on the ground.”

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