Can an earthquake again improve relations between Türkiye and Greece?

The devastating earthquakes that struck Turkey in February led to an improvement in relations between NATO allies Greece and Turkey after several years of high tensions in the Aegean region.

But before the catastrophe in Turkey, analysts had already predicted a period of calm ahead of the Turkish and Greek elections.

“It is too early to talk about a new page (in the relations between the two countries), because the positions of the two sides are so divergent that we cannot be optimistic about a solution,” said Alexandros Diakopoulos, a former national security official. Adviser to the Prime Minister: “The improvement in relations does not mean the disappearance of problems, it only means that we are not in a situation that could lead to a crisis.”

In 1999, earthquakes that struck Greece and Turkey brought the countries on both sides of the Aegean Sea closer together.

Members of the Turkish mountaineering team carry a 23-year-old Turkish woman after working to her rescue for more than 10 hours Wednesday, Aug. 18, 1999. – Enrique Marty/Associated Press

As a result of the ensuing so-called “earthquake diplomacy”, Greece adopted a new approach to Turkey’s possible accession to the European Union and succeeded in delinking this move from the accession of Cyprus.

“I think it’s a whole new leaf, and I think what I call earthquake diplomacy in Turkey has really made a difference, (for example) the massive amount of aid that Greece has given to Turkey,” said Soner Cagaptay, director of the center. Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“It is not often that a Greek prime minister tweets in Turkish and gets tens of thousands of likes, I think Turkish citizens really appreciate the help that Greece has provided by air, and this help has really changed the mood inside the country towards Greece,” he added.

It remains to be seen in the coming months whether this remarkable change in relations between the two countries will continue or if it was purely circumstantial.

Mitsotakis hopes for better relations with Türkiye if he is re-elected as Greek Prime Minister

Greece’s prime minister has said he will extend a “hand of friendship” to the winner of the next election in Turkey, longtime neighbor and regional rival – but adds that he hopes the next government will “reconsider its approach to the West”.

Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who faces elections in just over a week’s time, said he is ready to speak to whoever emerges victorious from Sunday’s elections in Turkey.

“But I’m not naive,” he told agencies in a wide-ranging interview while campaigning in central Greece on Thursday night. “I know that the foreign policies of countries do not change from one day to the next.”

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