Victoria’s latest earthquake: what do we know, and what can we expect next?

Once again, Melbourne was hit (or slightly rocked) by an earthquake.

The epicenter of the 4.6-magnitude earthquake was near Rawson, in the High Country in eastern Victoria.

More than 9,000 people reported feeling the quake, from as far west as Hamilton, east as Orbost, south as Wilson’s Promontory and as far north as Canberra.

What do we know about the earthquake, and what do we expect in the future?

We asked Stephen Curry, a geologist at the Federal University of Victoria, and De Ninis of the Earthquake Research Centre.

This earthquake is actually an aftershock

Seismologists say this morning’s quake was actually an aftershock of the 5.9-magnitude earthquake that shook four states in 2021.

This earthquake, with its epicenter at Woods Point near the epicenter today, was the largest earthquake ever recorded in Victoria and was caused by a previously unknown fault line deep in the Earth’s crust.

Several earthquakes have been detected across Australia (white dots) over the past decade, prior to Friday’s North Rawson earthquake (orange dot). (Geoscience Australia)

Dr. Carey said it is not unusual for aftershocks to occur years after the initial quake.

“It was a believable kind of jolt and it’s interesting that it happened,” said Dr. Carey.

Aftershocks usually occur in the days, weeks and months following the main earthquake, but it is not uncommon for them to occur several years later as the plane or fracture area adjusts to the main shock.

“If you think of that plane as a fractured surface, you have movement along the surface, but it closes up and puts additional pressure on adjacent areas.

“It’s a process of continuous adjustment as these regions along the fault adapt to a shift in the position of stresses.”

Are earthquakes increasing in frequency?

In May alone, a magnitude 4 earthquake in Melbourne prompted more than 26,000 felt reports from across Victoria and Tasmania.

But does the frequency of earthquakes increase significantly? The short answer is no.

“The Seismic Network is better now than before, it’s better at picking up earthquakes, especially small earthquakes,” said Dr. Carey.

“It’s more frequent right now, but we don’t have that much, so that’s what we would call statistical clustering.

“From time to time there is a greater frequency but then there are periods when the frequency is less, so it flattens out.”

Why does this part of Victoria seem to have more earthquakes?

According to Dr Carey, the epicenter is located within a girdle of some of the oldest rocks in Victoria.

“They are Paleozoic rocks, between 250 million and 500 million years old.

They form the backbone of Victoria, right across the High Country to the Grampians and West Grampians.

“There are basins to the north and south—the Murray and Gippsland basins—old rifts that run north-south or northwest-southeast, but they are recent stresses on an old rift.”

Are there other earthquake “hot spots”?

“There’s another south in Gippsland, around Mo and the Strzelecki mountain range, but it’s smaller earthquakes,” said Dr. Carey.

There is also a fault called the Selwyn Fault in Melbourne, down the eastern side of Port Phillip Bay.

“There is also a major geological structure – the Torrens Fault – that runs through the Adelaide and western Flinders Ranges.”

Dr Carey said Tennant Creek in the Northern Territory was also an earthquake hot spot.

In 1988, the city was struck by the strongest earthquake in recorded Australian history, followed by thousands of recorded aftershocks.

Are regional areas more prone to earthquakes?

In short, the answer is no.

Earthquakes can really happen anywhere, said the seismologist de Ninis, and the location cannot be determined in advance.

“Regional areas are not more prone to earthquakes. Frankly, we’ve just been lucky to not have an area under a major city in Australia,” she said.

Since the September 2021 earthquake, there have been about 2,000 aftershocks in the area, and fortunately, the vast majority cannot be felt.

Dr. Nenis said that aftershocks several years after the initial quake are not abnormal.

“The aftershocks can basically continue until the seismicity in the region reaches what it was before the main shock, and we’re not there yet,” she said.

These aftershocks will continue around the area of ​​the initial earthquake, which is why regional areas seem to have more activity.

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