Scientists discover an earthquake precursor that can give us a two-hour warning

Detecting earthquakes is notoriously difficult, as they can occur at any moment. A new study by researchers at the French National Institute for Sustainable Development used GPS satellites and thousands of geodetic stations to analyze nearly 90 earthquakes above magnitude 7.0, and found that these included a preliminary fault slip phase that could help extend earthquake warning systems from a few minutes to a few hours.

It is notoriously difficult to predict natural disasters, both when they will strike and with what severity. Scientists have refined human forecasting capabilities for a few varieties—satellites readily track a hurricane’s path as it makes landfall, and NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center helps monitor severe storms. But earthquakes are another story entirely. It can strike day or night, rain or shine, and all geological workings are hidden beneath our feet.

For more than 50 years, scientists have searched for methods that can reliably detect these catastrophic acts of nature, and a new study published today in the journal Science is a major step toward that goal. By analyzing GPS time-series data for 90 previous earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0, Quentin Peltieri and Jean-Mathieu Noquet — researchers at the Université Côte d’Azur and the French National Institute for Sustainable Development (IRD) — discovered that these earthquakes included “a fault-slide precursor phase two hours before the seismic rupture,” according to their paper.

In other words, they came with a warning sign.

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Previous retrospective studies looking at past earthquakes have shown that preparatory phases can be observed before the main shock of an earthquake, but the relationship between these phases and the actual earthquake that occurs is very weak. These preliminary phases can occur frequently and do not always end in an earthquake.

To find a more reliable data point, Bletery and Nocquet collected data from 3,026 geodetic stations worldwide and measured fault displacements two hours before 90 7.0 earthquakes. Statistical analysis revealed that a period of exponential acceleration of fault slip near the epicenter occurred approximately 2 hours prior to the main event – a main event initiated by a process known as ‘earthquake nucleation’. This result shows that many large earthquakes already have a precursor phase, and that this “exponential acceleration” can help give earthquake-prone communities a heads-up before a major earthquake strikes.

“If it can be ascertained that earthquake intention often involves an hour-long precursor phase, and the means can be developed to measure it reliably, a precursor warning can be issued, letting people know that it is time to put down the sharp utensils and read ‘drop, cover and hold,’” Roland Borgmann, a UCLA geologist who was not involved in the study, wrote in an article that a few hours is not enough to mitigate damage, but could be woven into existing earthquake warning systems that currently only provide a few minutes or even seconds, adds Borgmann. Just before the earthquake.

Although this pre-slip phase is associated with large earthquakes, it remains unknown whether similar pre-slip motions also act as a precursor to false starts. It is also possible that this study only reveals the tail end of a much longer period before the earthquake.

Right now, earthquakes are still the most difficult natural disaster to predict, but our earthquake seismicity is getting better, as geologists reveal the subtle secrets of the world-shaking movements along the Earth’s many fault lines.

Darren lives in Portland, has a cat, and writes/edits about science fiction and how our world works. You can find his past stuff at Gizmodo and Paste if you look hard enough.

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