Using GPS as a potential predictor of earthquakes

Earthquakes and GPS stations used in the study (top) Distribution mechanisms and foci (beach ball diagrams) of 90 MW7 earthquakes with 2 days of 5-min GPS records (with no gap and no noticeable tremor) available within a 500 km radius of the epicenters. Mechanism sizes refer to event size. The colors indicate the number of time series available for each event. (Bottom) Distribution of 3026 GPS stations with complete records in the two days preceding the 90 earthquakes as shown above (the list of earthquakes is given in Table S1). (Entries) Enlarged subpanels show areas of high concentration in the station. Credit: Science (2023). DOI: 10.1126/science.adg2565

A pair of seismologists at the University of Côte d’Azur have discovered what may turn out to be an accurate method for predicting earthquakes. In their study, published in the journal Science, Quentin Plettieri and Jean-Matthew Noquet looked at high-speed GPS time series data collected in the lead-up to the moment of earthquakes of magnitude 7 or higher. Roland Bürgmann with the University of California, Berkeley, published a Perspectives article in the same issue of the journal outlining the work the team has done on this new effort.

Seismologists have long sought to predict earthquakes so that people can respond. In many cases, a warning of several minutes could be useful – it would allow people to exit buildings that might collapse. Precursors are difficult to find due to the lack of information regarding what was happening near the epicenter before the earthquake. In this new effort, Bletery and Nocquet find a way to go back in time to learn more about the Earth’s alteration before a major earthquake occurred.

In the search for an earthquake harbinger, researchers obtained and studied accurate GPS data for the geographic areas surrounding the epicenters of 90 earthquakes on a scale of 7 over the past several years. They found a pattern — a slip between tectonic plates that caused the land above them to move in a measurable horizontal direction.

They also found that such slips could be observed and measured using GPS, that they occurred two hours before the earthquake and were too small to appear on standard seismometers. Most importantly, they saw the same slip in all the earthquakes they studied.

The work indicates that a reliable earthquake system can be designed based on an accurate Global Positioning System (GPS) listening system. On the downside, Borgmann notes that more work is needed to prove the existence of such a precursor for all large earthquakes, or at least most of them. He also adds that some upgrades to GPS technology are required to allow measurement of individual events around the clock.

More information: Quentin Bletery et al, Preliminary Phase for Large Earthquakes, Science (2023). DOI: 10.1126/science.adg2565

Roland Borgmann, Reliable Precursors of Earthquakes? Science (2023). DOI: 10.1126/science.adi8032

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Citation: Using GPS as a potential earthquake predictor (2023, July 21) Retrieved July 21, 2023 from https://phys.org/news/2023-07-gps-earthquake-predictor.html

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