GPS satellites may be able to detect earthquakes before they happen

Predicting earthquakes is impossible.

When it comes to knowing when an earthquake is coming, the crucial missing piece of the puzzle is what seismologists call a precursor: a telltale fingerprint of an earthquake arriving before the big event. To date, no one has found reliable precursors; Not many scientists think they’ll ever find one.

But two researchers may have made a breakthrough in the search for precursors. If they’re right, earthquakes could make their presence known through GPS measurements, several hours before their main events.

“Conceptually, this tells you that it is possible to do this. This is a big step,” believes Quentin Plettieri, a seismologist at the Research Institute for Development and the University of Côte d’Azur in France.

Related: Earthquakes seem most intense after cosmic rays strike. Scientists say this is why.

Bletery and colleague Jean-Mathieu Nocquet turned to a dataset maintained by the University of Nevada at Reno. Every five minutes, thousands of stations around the world record their GPS positions. These observations allow scientists to detect even very slight movements. If the Earth moves, Bletery and Nocquet can see it in the GPS data.

By identifying GPS stations located around the known locations of earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher, Bletery and Nocquet studied the recorded locations of those stations—and how they changed—in the 48 hours before the earthquake in question. They calculated how well the actual motion matched the motion they expected each earthquake to cause.

The researchers found that in the last two hours before an earthquake, the ground’s movement often began to align with the expected movement. This alignment appears to intensify as the time of the earthquake approaches. Although this pattern is slight, it was not generally apparent when Bletery and Nocquet examined randomly selected windows for two hours that had mostly no earthquakes.

Artist’s illustration of a GPS satellite above Earth. (Image credit: BlackJack3D/Getty Images)

Thus, the motion in these last two hours may contain the precursors that seismologists have long sought. But even with this knowledge, seismologists are far from turning it into a way to predict earthquakes. This is because today’s tools are not good enough to detect this movement before the fact. Bletery says existing equipment would need to be about 50 times more sensitive in order to detect a single earthquake precursor.

“This is a huge technology gap,” says Pelletri. “We don’t have the technology yet to do that.” Adding more GPS stations might help, and Bletery expects the scientists to do just that, but it won’t be enough on its own.

Still, Bletery thinks it’s a sign of progress that might interest scientists. For example, their discovery provides evidence that earthquakes are not chaotic, but rather instantaneous events caused by suddenly moving faults. Instead, the two-hour preview suggests that earthquakes may have precursor elements that could give up before they happen.

Moreover, their findings opened up other questions. The largest earthquake Bletery and Nocquet studied was the 9.0-magnitude Tohoku-Oki earthquake, which triggered a devastating tsunami off Japan’s eastern coast in 2011. When they checked GPS data along the Japanese coast, they found that the motions appeared identical more than two hours before the earthquake: in a cycle that seemed to repeat every 3.6 hours or so. What, if any, caused this circuit remains a mystery.

The research was published in the journal Science.

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos