Japan in the post-coronavirus world

The Geographic Economic Brief API is a series provided by the Asia Pacific Initiative, an independent think-tank based in Tokyo. The series will examine the geopolitical and economic trends in the post-COVID-19 world, with a special focus on four areas: technology and innovation; Global supply chains; International norm setting and climate change.

After the Great East Japan earthquake struck the Tohoku region on March 11, 2011, she worked for the Joint Staff Office of the Defense Ministry in charge of unit operations, working as a liaison between Japan and the United States for the Tomodachi operation, a relief effort undertaken by the United States military.

It obviously felt that today’s disasters, including the collapse of the Fukushima nuclear power plant, were collectively the worst crisis since WWII.

And now, nine years later, we face another crisis – a COVID-19 outbreak.

The epidemic has forced people around the world to change their daily lives, and it has a serious impact that exceeds even the effects of the March 11 disasters. Urban jobs have been crippled in big cities like New York, Paris and London, revealing the weakness of megacities.

After working as Commander-in-Chief of the East Self-Defense Forces ground army, and assuming leadership of defense and security and disaster relief operations in the metropolitan area comprising Tokyo and 10 other prefectures, I will discuss, based on my own experience, the true risks behind the over-concentration of the population and the main functions in Tokyo In the post-coronary world and how to overcome it.

The dangers of Tokyo

While I was working as Commander in Chief for two years starting in the summer of 2013, areas within the jurisdiction of the Eastern Army experienced a number of disasters, including landslides on Izu Oshima Island, and heavy snow in the Kanto-Koshenetsu region. Mount Ontak eruption. Over 100,000 Self-Defense Forces personnel were sent for disaster relief operations.

During those operations as well as in times of calm, what was constantly on my mind was the possibility of an earthquake directly in the capital without any indications in advance.

Looking down from the sky, you can easily get to know the characteristics of the Tokyo metropolitan area. The skyscrapers are standing close to each other in the areas of Shinjuku, Ikebukuro and Roppongi, which are compact houses along narrow and complex streets and areas at sea level on the banks of the Edogawa, Arakawa and Sumida rivers, and the areas divided by rivers – a street after a street of densely populated areas, which It makes the city a very difficult place to send rescue teams.

In the past, the Japanese people used to say that the most frightening things are earthquakes, thunder, fires and fathers. For Tokyo today, the most frightening things are earthquakes, floods and volcanoes, now accompanied by a new threat – the COVID-19 pandemic.

The risks of these threats can be described in the following forecasts.

An earthquake of 7.3 magnitude directly strikes Tokyo, which is expected to occur in the next 30 years with a probability of 70 percent, that will either destroy or burn 610,000 homes as a maximum and a maximum of 23,000 dead.

The Tone River breaks its banks and overflows, which is expected to happen once every 200 years, which will lead to the inundation of areas along the river and its tributaries, the Edogawa River, within a week, affecting up to 1.6 million people and causing deaths up to 3,800.

The eruption of Mount Fuji of roughly the same size as its last mountain in 1707 will cause rail and road traffic suspension in Tokyo and Kanagawa Prefecture within three hours due to volcanic ash fall. If it rains at the same time, falling ash may cause the power and water supply to be suspended, as well as the breakdown of communications on a large scale.

Real risks

The most dangerous factor in all of this is the number of victims who will follow a disaster. The population of Tokyo and the three neighboring provinces of Chiba, Saitama and Kanagawa is around 36.6 million, making up about 30 percent of the population of the entire country. (For comparison, the population of Seoul represents 49.6% of the South Korean population; Paris is 18.2% of the French population; and London constitutes 13.4% of the British population).

If a third of the population in the metropolitan area is assumed to have suffered a disaster, this equates to approximately 12 million people. This is a huge number, given the number of people evacuated after the March 11 disasters was nearly 330,000.

Will there be enough shelters to accommodate the evacuees? How can we continue to provide food and water? How can faeces be eliminated if the water supply is cut off? There are a number of challenges.

People may think that the SDF or other first responders will come to the rescue in the event of a disaster, but this will not be easy in urban areas.

Since the SDF is also involved in defense missions, the maximum number of individuals that can be dispatched for disaster relief activities is around 110,000. If 10 million or more people are affected by a disaster, this means one SDF member for every 100 people – an unprecedented number.

If a disaster occurs in an urban area, rescue teams will head to the city center from outside areas using pre-planned routes. But we must realize that their arrival will take a long time, keeping in mind that many roads and bridges were likely to be destroyed or filled with people and vehicles trying to evacuate.

Vulnerable to epidemics

The COVID-19 pandemic presents new challenges to densely populated urban areas. One measure that helps prevent the further spread of the virus includes people who are two meters away from each other.

However, depending on the population and the total area of ​​central Tokyo, the available space for each person turns into about 49 square meters, or a radius of 3.5 meters each.

This means that in some areas it will be difficult to maintain a distance of two meters if the entire population goes to evacuation shelters. Given that multiple disasters, such as epidemics, earthquakes, and floods, can occur simultaneously, it is necessary to review evacuation guidelines.

Data centers

Keio John Murray University professor, who heads the API Institute of Economic Geographical Studies, sounds the alarm about the fact that many data centers operating on servers and data communications devices are concentrated in Tokyo.

Although these data centers are designed to be resistant to earthquakes, power outages and power outages, it will be difficult to maintain their functions during a prolonged power outage or if the fire extends over a wide area.

Moreover, data centers are becoming increasingly important as more and more people engage in tele-conference and teleconferencing. The higher the concentration of data in Tokyo, the greater the risk of destroying this data in the event of disasters striking the capital.

Diversification is the key

Even in the post-COVID-19 world, Tokyo will remain a city that attracts visitors to and from the country as a center of politics, economy and culture.

On the other hand, unless something is done to diversify this, the city may lose its job as a political and economic center in the event of a major disaster.

Needless to say, the dangers of Tokyo are the dangers of Japan.

Yuichi Hosoya, a professor at Keio University, addresses the Japanese need to raise awareness about security issues as their own.

In his book “Military Affairs and Politics: Choosing Japan”, he writes: “The discussions were not enough about the measures that must be taken to confront the danger and ensure the safety of the Japanese people, and the type of activities that the Self-Defense Forces should undertake. Engage in.”

I would like to point out three things that will help Japan overcome these dangers.

First, urban dwellers must realize that they live in areas with high catastrophic risks and learn to protect their lives. First of all, they must store at least a week of food and emergency water to live on.

Second, for companies whose data centers are concentrated and other basic infrastructure in Tokyo, these companies must diversify these jobs. Moreover, they should benefit from increased teleworking, teleconferencing amid the epidemic, and reviewing their office locations and staff work patterns in order to diversify their risks.

Finally, central and local governments must act quickly to solve accumulated problems in urban areas, including overcrowding, uncomfortable living conditions and the possible paralysis of city jobs in times of disaster.

It is necessary to restrict the population in dangerous and densely populated areas and to promote the building of a new well-balanced society as a country and society as a whole.

If the national capital is hit by a disaster, the corridors of power may be damaged, leading to delays in decision-making and an initial response, which impedes the government’s efforts to deal.

The best option would be to transfer national government jobs outside of Tokyo, or at least set up backup facilities that would be government headquarters outside the metropolitan area.

The COVID-19 outbreak forced central and local governments to think about the role they should play in fighting a national crisis. Moreover, the central government faces a profound challenge in reviewing the current crisis management system in which the cabinet secretariat has the power to coordinate public policies while allowing ministries to maintain control and control over their own administrative affairs – a system that is beginning to show its borders.

In 2012, New York suffered a blackout after Hurricane Sandy hit the city, along with a tidal high of more than three meters. Paris has experienced one-time floods in 100 years several times in recent years. In the aftermath of the March 11 disasters, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has actively worked to assess country risk management policies and issued a progress assessment report in 2018.

The dangers behind the concentration of people and jobs in Tokyo are no longer someone else’s problem for big cities around the world.

Koichi Isobe is a senior fellow at the American Petroleum Institute and is a former lieutenant of the Ground Self-Defense Forces.

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