Great earthquake in California got “Little Claire”

Researchers said last week that an analysis of recent changes along the earthquake errors in southern California indicates an increased probability of a major earthquake in San Andreas Volt.

Changes in breakdown pressure, caused by a pair of strong earthquakes in July 2019, increase the likelihood of an earthquake along the San Andreas in the next 12 months to about 1%, or three to five times the possibility of previous forecasts, the researchers said.

A major earthquake on this part of the mistake, called Mojave, could destroy Los Angeles and its surrounding communities, home to 18 million people.

One of the researchers, Ross S. Stein, a former geophysicist at the US Geological Survey who now runs a consulting firm: “We still say this is unlikely.” “It’s just a little bit closer.”

The results are published in the Bulletin of the American Seismological Association.

But other researchers objected to the analysis, saying it was extremely unlikely. “While they agree with the basic hypothesis of the study, their numbers are very high,” said Morgan T. Page, a research geophysicist who predicts earthquakes in a geological survey.

Earthquake Forecasts describe the probability of an earthquake during a certain time period; They are not predictions of a specific event at a specific time. The geological survey now predicts a 31% probability of a 7.5 magnitude earthquake in the Los Angeles area in the next 30 years.

Stein and his longtime collaborator, Shinji Toda of Tohoku University in Japan, designed pressure changes in the complex structure of surrounding malfunctions caused by the 2019 earthquakes, which occurred in a series near Ridgecrest, California, about 120 miles north of Los Angeles. Earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.4 and 7.1 resulted in the death of one person, wounding about twenty injuries, and wounding at least a billion dollars.

In the earthquake, the pressure that has accumulated along the rift reaches a breaking point, releasing enormous amounts of energy. This release can alter the stress on other parts of the rift or on adjacent defects, which in some cases increases or reduces the possibility of more earthquakes.

At Ridgecrest, the changes from the second first earthquake triggered 34 hours later. But in general these types of stress changes are temporary. The likelihood of another earthquake diminishing over time. This is why Stein and Toda’s forecasts are only for the next 12 months.

In their analysis, they showed that the Ridgecrest earthquakes changed pressure along a nearby fault, Jarlock, and increased the possibility of a major earthquake 75 miles along it. They said there was a 2.3% chance for the Garlock earthquake over the next year.

But Jarlock passes through a relatively uninhabited area. Of far greater concern is San Andreas, which is the major mistake that runs from northern California to southern California. Garlock is orthogonal to it, and researchers have found that a major earthquake on Garlock has the potential to detonate one in San Andreas, if Garlock’s rupture approaches the biggest mistake.

“Garlock is the link in the chain,” Stein said. “If it’s about 25 miles from San Andreas, it increases the chances of an earthquake there by about 150 times.”

Susan Ho, a seismologist in the geological survey, said she believed that such a series of events is unlikely.

She said, “It’s kind of a Ruby Goldberg scenario.” “This is possible, but regarding something worrisome, the possibility is low.”

Another series of events proposed in the new study is just one of many plausible scenarios of what could happen in southern California, said Kenneth Hoodnote, another geophysicist in the geological survey who studied the seismic sequence that occurred in the Imperial Valley of California in 1987.

(Optional trim starts.)

He said: “I will not call it elusive.” “I’m not going to challenge the idea of ​​Garlock having a bigger event.

“But just because we can create a reasonable scenario does not mean it will happen.”

He added, in studying the earthquakes, that “what comes after” is a difficult problem for us. But this is what everyone wants to know.

“I think this paper does a good job of representing uncertainty.”

(End of optional pruning.)

Stein said that another way to look at the findings of Toda is that she still expects a 99% chance of no major earthquake in San Andreas this year.

He said: “The sky does not fall.” “No one should be alarmed.

But at the same time, the inference to increase the possibility of San Andreas rupture should be a reminder that anyone in Los Angeles should ask themselves, “Am I ready? “

This story was originally published on nytimes.com. Read it here.

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