A study connecting solar activity to earthquakes sends shock waves across the world of science

The peer-reviewed paper that found a relationship between solar activity and earthquakes sends tremors through the scientific community. The salon contacted scientists to inquire after the seismic conclusions of the research paper, and discovered an amazing amount of grudge between skeptical geophysicists and seismologists.

The paper, published in Nature’s Scientific Reports, states that groups of protons from the sun may be associated with large earthquakes on Earth. The sun, like all active stars, constantly ventilates in the form of the solar wind, which includes particles such as electrons, protons, and ionized helium atoms. The distribution and density of these particles varies, as the sun has a changing “weather” just as the Earth differs.

Researchers Vito Marketiti, Paolo Harrabalia, Claudia Trois, and Giuseppe de Natalie, studied data related to earthquakes and solar activity to ascertain whether there was a correlation. Their data consist of earthquake data worldwide as well as measurements of solar protons from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, a joint satellite of NASA and ESA launched in 1995 and still active.

Understanding researchers’ thesis requires a brief invasion of statistics. If earthquakes happen at completely random times of the day, one can draw them on a chart depicting the time, and the points will be randomly distributed, without a clear pattern. Moreover, their rate of occurrence will be statistically constant, albeit random, – which means they will not prefer one time over any other time.

But it is clear that earthquakes do not fit this pattern.

“It has long been known that large earthquakes occurring throughout the world are not distributed by Poisson,” the researchers wrote. Poisson distribution is a statistical term that officially describes the situation described above, where events occur at a steady rate, regardless of past events. Radioactive decay is a good example of something else that observes the Poisson distribution: individual events of atomic decomposition are randomly distributed, but over time they evolve into something predictably stable, which is why physicists are able to predict an accurate half-life for any isotopes.

Because the timing of earthquakes appears to fit some invisible patterns, they assume that large earthquakes must “participate”[e] Some binding mechanisms are extensive, which can be internal or external to the Earth.

“So far, no statistically significant association with global earthquakes has been demonstrated with one of the possible mechanisms so far. In this paper, we analyze 20 years of proton density and velocity data, as recorded by the SOHO satellite, and global earthquakes in the corresponding period, as reported in the catalog ISC-GEM. “

They concluded, “We found a clear relationship between the density of protons and the occurrence of large earthquakes [of magnitute greater than 5.6], With a one-day time shift. The importance of this correlation is very high, with a possible error of less than 10 ^ -5 ” [meaning one in 10000].

Statistically, this means that there is a strong trust relationship between the two events, which means the proton density and the occurrence of these large earthquakes. In fact, one in every 10,000 is close to the gold standard of statistical certainty.

However, many geophysicists and seismologists questioned the paper’s conclusion for other reasons. The salon spoke to many who criticized the results.

“The first thing that I thought of was that what prevented the global distribution of earthquakes from being a Poisson is the occurrence of an earthquake,” Tom Parsons, a research geophysicist at the United States Geological Survey, told a salon by email. “Once the catalog is removed and the aftershocks removed, it is difficult to show non-random times between events. Since the aftershocks are a local phenomenon in the first place, it shocks me because it is not likely to be caused by global activity at the solar level.”

In other words, Parsons notes that earthquakes are not randomly distributed, and therefore will not adhere to Poisson distribution, because earthquakes are often not independent events: a single earthquake can lead to a follow-up earthquake, or vice versa. The term “Declustering” refers to the separation of “groups” of related earthquake events, such as the earthquake and its associated tremors.

Co-author Giuseppe de Natalie, when approached this criticism, claimed by salon by email that “the widespread link between earthquakes around the world is not only due to the simple” conglomerate “, which is meant the sequences of major aftershocks.”

De Natalie explained that researchers “never say that the aftershocks are caused by solar activity.” (Indeed, causal correlation is not equal, since mathematics teachers everywhere are fond of reminding us). He continued: “In fact, in this case, we will not have a high statistical significance for inferred correlation.”

De Nathalie also rid himself of criticism of “assembling” earthquakes and aftershocks that undermine his thesis. He told Salon that the link they found was related to “a very strange behavior of the earthquake around the world, which we observe and study now, which indicates the tendency of global earthquakes.” [. . .] To congregate at times, but at thousands of reciprocal distances [kilometers]; Therefore, “aftershocks” cannot be in the proper sense. “He argued that this” appears to be closely related to the dramatic effect of proton density (and hence solar activity).

De Nathalie cited other earthquake accidents, including those that were deep underground, as “isolated events” that demonstrate the criticism of the aftershock is unwarranted. Even the huge shallow earthquakes, de Natalie says, Poisson distributions did not appear even after being isolated from the aftershocks, which means they seem to be related to something.

Greg Perosa, director of the Earthquake Center in Southern California and professor of geophysics at Stanford University, had a similar reaction to the paper as Parsons.

“The claim seems exceptional and the physical mechanism is ambiguous,” Perosa told a salon by e-mail. “This is an example of statistical seismology, and there are many potential pitfalls associated with this type of work.”

De Nathalie also responded to Perosa’s criticism. “We agree that the physical mechanism we are proposing is still very specific and needs more empirical evidence,” he said. “However, the correlation index is very strong with the probability that the error (i.e. accidentally only) is less than 1 / 100,000. Moreover, we used several different and very advanced statistical methods to confirm correlation.”

He continued, “Therefore, it is possible that the physical mechanism is not the appropriate mechanism, but, in our opinion, it is almost impossible to deny the existence of a clear relationship between the density of protons and earthquakes around the world.”

Another seismologist questioned the rigor of the study’s accuracy and expressed deep doubts about its findings.

“I’m not excited,” John Emilio Fidel, a seismologist at the University of Southern California, told Salon. “There are a lot of red flags in that paper. I am frankly surprised that it has passed the review. I have to admit that I didn’t review the numbers and try to reproduce their statistical analysis, which will really be the key, but they kind of misunderstand a number of things and approach the problem in a very circular way, so I am somewhat skeptical. “

He added: “They set a whole set of arbitrary rules with those who know the number of pre-parameters and then make these complex plots that are not really clear meaning. So they are not a direct test of their ideas.”

De Nathalie responded to this criticism by saying, “We use only one parameter to infer the correlation: the proton density level. Moreover, we use very different and advanced statistical procedures to test the correlation statistically.” De Nathalie cited one of these statistical procedures, a “well-known” method for testing “seismic prediction algorithms” known as the Mulchan method.

“I understand that these methods, for people who are not used to dealing with them, may be difficult to understand; but they are very sound – and the statistical results, which show such high importance, are almost impossible to deny,” de Natalie added.

Whether or not solar activity is related to earthquakes on Earth, earthquake prediction has long served as the holy grail of geologists and actuaries alike. Indeed, a powerful earthquake prediction can save lives and help disaster relief and preparedness. However, deep research inside the Earth, to the point where errors can be observed, is an impossible task for any kind of scientific imaging due to the density of the rocks; Instead, modern seismology relies on indirect observation and seismic data observed instead. Indeed, recent advances in seismic prediction technology – such as those predicting an increased probability of a major earthquake in southern California – are caused by computer modeling using seismic records and geological models.

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