Earthquake Early Warning System Still Faulty But Possible: Asahi Shimbun

A familiar sight took place all over the country, to the dismay of the Japan Meteorological Agency.

After an early earthquake warning is issued, amazed people prepare themselves for the “Great Earthquake”. They feel a slight wiggle, or even absolutely nothing, and then do their job as usual.

The agency has improved technology to issue accurate and timely warnings of earthquakes, but system constraints remain clear.

Since April, the agency has issued several early warnings of earthquakes to regions where the intensity of earthquakes was expected to be at 5 degrees lower on the Japan 7 scale. An earthquake shaking below 5 degrees makes it difficult to walk.

However, all warnings issued since April have been proven wrong.

For example, an alert was sent at 1:13 pm on May 19 during a news program broadcast by the Japanese Public Broadcasting Corporation (NHK).

“An emergency warning of the earthquake was issued,” an announcement said during the parade. “Please stay vigilant against strong vibration.”

However, the maximum intensity of the earthquake, which was recorded in Takayama, Gifu Prefecture, was 4.

Aside from the aforementioned earthquake, six warnings were issued between April 20 and May 19 of the tremors that are occurring in areas along the Gifu and Nagano prefectures in central Japan and in the Kanto region.

But none of them were strong enough to reach the minimum of 5.

The most embarrassing was released on May 11 and May 19.

The first was an earthquake off Ibaraki Prefecture and was later rated only 3 degrees strong.

The May 19 earthquake in Gifu Prefecture was expected to reach the top 5, but, like the Ibaraki earthquake, the actual intensity was two levels lower.

Such contradictions seem inevitable under the current regime.

When an earthquake occurs, small seismic waves first spread out of focus, followed by stronger waves.

The detected initial waves at about 170 observation points are analyzed immediately to measure the earthquake range. An early warning alert is issued if it is rated below 5.

One of the major problems facing the emergency warning system, which has been available to the public since 2007, is that the data collected in the initial stages tends to be somewhat inaccurate.

Over time, additional data is available that can be used to obtain more reliable early warnings.

But if the agency waits to collect that information, a “early” warning can be issued after it has already shaken the target areas from stronger earthquakes.

When the agency reviews the accuracy of its warnings, the difference in density between the projection and the actual number within 1 is considered a “margin of error”.

If the difference is 2 or more, it is called “swing out”.

May alerts were categorized as fluctuations. And they raised fears that the agency could be seen as “the boy who cried the wolf” if the trend continued.

At a news conference in May, Yasuo Sekita, the agency’s director-general, called for public understanding about the technological challenges involved in the immediate projection of the earthquake intensity.

He said about losing the mark: “It is inevitable.”

The agency has included technological developments in the early warning system. The latest technology introduced in March 2018 has significantly improved its record.

Of the 193 emergency alerts issued at the time, 55 recorded earthquakes, or 28 percent, had a severity of 3, a level most people felt, or less.

After introducing the latest technology, only alerts, or 6 percent of a total of 30 alerts, were below this level.

Despite the volatile record of the early warning system, citizens are not bothered by false alarms.

“The proportion of people who prefer a warning that is issued immediately – even if it is proven wrong – has remained around 60-70 percent until recently,” said Hiromichi Nakamori, professor of disaster information studies at Nihon University.

He conducted periodic studies on public attitudes towards the early warning system.

The agency once issued a “false” alert for a large area of ​​the Kanto region in January 2018, but in Tokyo there was no earthquake of the first level.

An online survey following this blunder found that 65.5 percent of respondents said the error “could not be helped” or “was not a cause for particular concern.”

The poll also found that 85.5 percent combined said the agency should immediately provide an explanation to the public through television, radio and e-mail for the wrong evaluation.

“It can’t be helped to end with failure,” Nakamori said. “But the agency needs to make sure that it always informs the public about the mechanism of the emergency warning system to gain their understanding.”

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