The CyberShake study uses the Summit supercomputer to investigate earthquake risk

The CyberShake Study 22.12 seismic hazard model shows areas of Southern California, shown in red and yellow, are expected to experience strong ground movements at least once in the next 2,500 years. Credit: California Statewide Earthquake Center

Researchers at the California Statewide Earthquake Center, or SCEC, are unraveling earthquake mysteries using physics-based computational models running on high-performance computing systems at the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The team's findings will provide a better understanding of seismic risks in the Golden State.

Building on more than a decade of experience, the CyberShake Study 22.12 is the largest set of earthquake simulations ever conducted by SCEC. The study was conducted on the Summit supercomputer of the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility. The OLCF is a DOE Office of Science User Facility located at ORNL.

CyberShake 22.12 took advantage of updated Earth structure models and new computational methods to improve broadband (0–20+ Hz) ground motion simulation of earthquakes. The team's goal is to reduce uncertainties in current estimates of earthquake risk in California. Large earthquakes cause the most damage, but they also occur less frequently, making studying their evolution more difficult.

“Accurate estimates of the strength and duration of ground motions of future earthquakes are essential for understanding seismic risk,” said Philipp Meichling, CyberShake software developer and associate director of information technology at SCEC. “We have relied on historical monitoring data to help us estimate potential shaking levels, but there is not enough near-fault ground motion monitoring to meet current or future needs.”

CyberShake creates seismic hazard models by integrating a wide range of existing seismic data. Using a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method, CyberShake estimates the extreme ground motions a particular location is likely to experience in the future. These estimates are incorporated into regional hazard maps and used to inform scientists, civil engineers, and the public about earthquake risks.

To calculate the CyberShake 22.12 risk model, Maechling's team used Pegasus, a workflow management system designed by research director Ewa Dillman and her team at the University of Southern California, or USC, Institute for Information Sciences. The Maechling team consistently managed a variety of functions at Summit over the course of 10 weeks. Pegasus automatically managed 2.5 petabytes of data, the equivalent of about 500 billion pages of standard printed text, including automated transfer of 70 terabytes to the University of Southern California's archive repository.

CyberShake uses an up-to-date list of all active faults in California and a 3D seismic velocity model to describe the land structure of Southern California. The region's combination of mountainous landscapes and sediment-filled valleys causes wide variations in the geographic distribution of strong ground motions resulting from earthquakes of large magnitude.

The Maechling team updated the CyberShake 22.12 codes to model earthquake ruptures more accurately and to include high-frequency ground motions. The team simulated the broadband ground motions of 620,000 earthquakes at 335 locations in Southern California.

CyberShake uses detailed information about the Earth's structure from fault models and seismic velocity models with physics-based computational modeling to produce information about where strong shaking is most likely to occur. This method has proven to be more accurate than previous observational methods, which were simpler, less computationally expensive, and less accurate.

From the beginning of the project, Maechling's team recognized the value of collaborating across multiple scientific disciplines, including geophysics, civil engineering, and computer science. CyberShake integrates science and technology from these fields by adapting the best available data into physics-based models of the Earth's active crust. CyberShake data is public and is provided to researchers and other end users in various formats to suit their needs.

The team presented the results of CyberShake 22.12 at the 2023 SCEC Annual Meeting in Palm Springs, California.

Previous CyberShake results have proven to be beneficial to the public. For example, the US Geological Survey used data from the 2020 simulations to inform the National Seismic Hazard Reduction Program in 2023. Additionally, the Council on Earthquake Safety in Building and the American Society of Civil Engineers used CyberShake results in updated building code recommendations for Southern California In 2020.

It's too early to say how impactful CyberShake 22.12 will be, but Maechling expects similar developments from this latest study. The CyberShake Collaboration is actively developing a new earthquake hazard model that uses a consistent methodology for the state of California.

“We can do a lot of work to produce useful information about seismic hazards without waiting for the next big earthquake,” Maitschling said. “Our ultimate goal is to use high-performance computing to produce accurate seismic hazard information that enhances public safety.”

Provided by Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Citation: CyberShake study uses Summit supercomputer to investigate earthquake hazards (2024, February 7) Retrieved February 7, 2024 from https://phys.org/news/2024-02-cybershake-summit-supercomputer-earthquake-hazards.html

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