Earthquake early warning system: Is this what it could look like in New Zealand?

Scientists now have a better idea of ​​what a national earthquake early warning system in New Zealand could look like after using smart technology that has already been tested on some of the most recent big tremors. Photography/NZTA Waka Kotahi

It could give New Zealanders a few life-saving seconds to prepare before a major earthquake strikes.

Scientists have trialled a clever technology that could pave the way for a national earthquake early warning (EEW) system – and so far it has been tested on some of the largest recent earthquakes.

These systems work by detecting the faster-moving “P waves” of earthquakes, moments before the more damaging S waves arrive – moments later.

New Zealand currently has some early warning systems: a pioneering system from Google that sends messages to Android phones before the shaking starts – and local company Jenlogix runs a network used by many councils, ports and energy companies.

But unlike Japan and many other countries where earthquakes are common, New Zealand does not have a government-run and funded earthquake early warning network.

Such networks typically require tens of millions of dollars to set up and operate.

In a first step towards making this happen, New Zealand scientists working under the Rapid Earthquake and Tsunami Characterization Program have started running the 'Finite Fault Rupture Tool', or FinDer – designed to quickly estimate the extent and location of an earthquake

It relies on real-time ground motion data collected by seismic sensor networks – and is already operational in the United States and Central America.

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In New Zealand, where GeoNet is piloting more than 500 sensors, FinDer is constantly scanning data for patterns that could indicate earthquakes.

If an event is detected, the model is converted into a 2D map image and then compared to a catalog of pre-calculated scenarios.

“This is done continuously as the rupture develops, giving us a series of snapshots of the rupture as it grows over seconds to minutes after it forms,” explained Dr. Gene Andrews, a seismologist at GNS Science.

“This means we get information about the magnitude of the earthquake, and also sometimes about the direction of fault rupture, both of which are critical for quickly understanding the risks and impacts of major events.”

While FinDer has not yet been tested in real time by a large earthquake in New Zealand, scientists have found that it has performed well at picking up smaller earthquakes, including recent magnitude 6.0 events near Paraparaumu, Buranghau and Geraldine.

When a 5.2 magnitude earthquake struck Buranghau last month, FinDer provided reliable information on the earthquake's size and location within 14 seconds.

They also simulated some of the largest tremors we've seen in recent times, including the 2010-2011 Canterbury sequence and the 7.8-magnitude Kaikoura event in 2016.

Despite all the clever science behind earthquake early warning (EEW) systems, New Zealanders know little about how to use them, new research suggests.

“Through real-time testing, we explored the behavior of the method in terms of reliability, speed and accuracy,” Andrews said.

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“We now better understand how well this method works with New Zealand's earthquake network and our unique and complex tectonic environment.”

This technology had some drawbacks: it was not designed to provide high-precision solutions, it could not pinpoint fine detail about the exact errors that were involved, and it did not perform well in offshore events – limiting its usefulness in estimating tsunami danger levels.

However, Andrews said operating it in New Zealand would have benefits in obtaining rapid information during earthquake response – while enabling scientists to explore EEW methods.

“We can now assess how close or far away our systems are from being able to provide reliable, accurate and timely warnings, and begin to understand the cost-benefit of implementing a New Zealand national system.”

The technique, described in a study just published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, comes after researchers recently discovered that New Zealanders know little about EEW systems.

Focusing on Google's Android operating system, a team from Massey University's Joint Center for Disaster Research surveyed people to assess how much they knew about it and how they responded to it.

While most found them useful, there was also low awareness of them – and most people who received the alerts did not immediately take the correct action of drop, cover and catch.

Only a quarter of respondents knew the alert came from Google, while others believed it was sent by the National Emergency Management Agency or GeoNet.

At the same time, it has not yet been verified whether earthquakes can be predicted.

One recent major study identified unique seismic signals eight months before Turkey's devastating 2023 earthquake — but the study's authors noted that medium- to short-term prediction remains challenging, if not impossible.

Scientists here have a good understanding of where and how earthquakes will occur over the long term, with a 20-year prediction model built into the recently updated New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model, GNS Hazard and Risk Scientist Dr Anne-Marie Christoffersen said.

“The best way to prepare for future earthquakes is to build well with an understanding of the latest science.”

Jamie Morton specializes in science and environmental reporting. He joined the Herald in 2011 and writes about everything from environmental conservation and climate change to natural hazards and new technology.

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