Putin in Peril – The Right Way to Get Rid of President Alexander Lukashenko | Leaders

AUTOCRATS AROUND the world has a lot to learn from Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, a former Soviet republic of 10 million people between Poland and Russia. He was admired by the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chvez, is supported by Hungarian Viktor Orban and warmly welcomed by Chinese Xi Jinping. Vladimir Putin copied some of his dirty election tricks. Mr Lukashenko has been in office longer than any of them, thanks to a mixture of populism, socialism, repression, Russian money and European tolerance.

But as Belarus heads for elections on August 9, Lukashenko faces one of the most difficult moments of his 26-year reign. The result is no doubt if the vote takes place. Belarus has not had a free or fair election since 1994, when the former boss of the collective farm rose to power with a pledge to restore stability three years after the collapse of the Soviet Union. With two of his challengers in prison and a third in exile, opinion polls banned, independent observers banned and riot police set to crush protests, Lukashenko is certain to declare himself the winner, with a large majority . What is much less certain this time is whether the Belarusians will accept the result. For the West, the election carries both risks and opportunities. Reducing the first and maximizing the second will require principle and courage.

The anti-Lukashenko push was sparked by his mismanagement of covid-19, which he dismissed as psychosis that could be treated with a few shots of vodka and a bit of tractor driving. The underlying causes go much deeper. After nearly a decade of economic stagnation and no glimmer of change, Mr. Lukashenkos’ version of stability is no longer selling. Opponents of the regimes rallied behind Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, a former teacher. She’s not a career politician, but she registered as a presidential candidate when her husband couldn’t. He is a popular vlogger who was arrested by morons Mr. Lukashenkos to stop him from running. She is joined by two other women, who represent the other candidates struck off. Her only policy is to have a fresh and free election within six months if she wins. All over Belarus, its rallies gathered large crowds and looked like rock concerts, with people singing a song about the demolition of prison walls.

It is hard to imagine that Mr Lukashenko is losing power. Its riot police are visibly drilling the streets of Minsk. His rigged election ten years ago resulted in cracked skulls, arrests, Western sanctions and kudos from Russia. This time around, however, the discontent is much wider and the room for maneuver narrows so much that he could still annul the election. Lukashenko has long and skillfully played on the rivalry between Russia and the West. He extracted concessions from Russia for showing symbolic loyalty and touted Russia’s threat to keep the West off its back. But this balancing act has become more precarious. Last year, the Kremlin pressured Mr. Lukashenko to politically integrate the two countries so that Mr. Putin could be president of both. Mr Lukashenko said no.

The Kremlin is now in a difficult situation. Mr Putin faces his own protests in Far Eastern Russia. He hates the idea of ​​a color revolution in Belarus; but if he sent troops to stop one, it would trigger more Western sanctions in addition to those imposed on him for Russia’s bloody assault on Ukraine in 2014. Perhaps better for him to let the Belarusian leader launch his own repression, making him an outcast and therefore ultimately a supplicant.

It would be a terrible result. The West must use all the carrots and sticks it can muster to prevent Mr Lukashenko from using force against his own people, while warning Russia against any subversive action. If change does happen in Belarus, let it be peaceful.

This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline “The Next Revolution?”