Risk of students arriving at school with a coronavirus

Millions of families face unbearable choices this fall. Should children join if the local school reopens the classroom and is at risk of exposure to the coronavirus? Or should they stay home and lose face-to-face instruction?

No single factor can solve such a terrible decision. However, the new estimates provide a rough measure of the risk that students and educators will encounter in US county schools.

Estimates from researchers at the University of Texas at Austin range from sober to surprisingly encouraging, depending on the size and size of the school.

Based on current infection rates, more than 80% of Americans live in the county and if school started today, at least one infected person would appear in a school of 500 students and staff in the first week. Expected

In the highest risk areas such as Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Nashville and Las Vegas, it is expected that at least 5 students or staff in 500 schools will be infected.

The high numbers reflect the rapid spread of the virus in areas where it is estimated that more than 1 in 70 people are currently infected.

At the same time, small, isolated student groups face a much lower risk. Some schools are considering Filter classes In a small “pod”, students primarily interact with the teacher. The chances of infected persons remaining in school remain the same, but the risk of exposure within their pods is much lower.

If they remain isolated from the rest of the school — high order — 10 pods in all parts of the country are unlikely to include infected people in the first week.

Educational experts and sick researchers have said that information that reflects local conditions can be important in shaping decisions by parents, teachers, managers, and political leaders.

Lauren Ansel Myers, an epidemiologist and research team head at the University of Austin, Texas, said, “We can guide you to school so that your children can safely or easily accept them and bring them with you. To be able to predict that.”

Predictions are a rough guideline based on the estimated prevalence of the virus in each county from the New York Times case database, which is estimated to infect 5 people for each known case. These estimates reflect current levels of infection across the country and may change, improve or worsen in individual communities in the coming weeks and months.

Spencer Fox, a member of the research team, estimates that children are as likely to carry and carry the virus as adults.

“This is a rough guide and means it’s the first step,” said Dr. Fox.

Karl T. Bergstrom, a biology professor at the University of Washington, said that in some preliminary studies, children are less likely to be infected, or younger children are less likely to be infected, which lowers risk. It has been suggested that there is a possibility. But those questions Unresolved, He said.

Still, this information “really helps me understand my parents’ situation,” said Dr. Bergstrom. “Everything that could help you do that helps you make better decisions and offers you certain comfort and assurance.”

Many school districts start school years remotely. The person opening the building hedges the risk Various measuresRequire masks and social distances, hold classes outdoors when possible, take students to school on a different schedule, etc.

The plans announced by some of the nation’s largest school systems have already shown that choices are expanding. District of San Diego and Los Angeles, Said they will operate online in the fall as well as fall, due to the risk of crowded classrooms The majority of California schools Based on guidelines issued by the state. New York CityHowever, it plans to reopen partially and allows class attendance 1-3 times a week.

But the decision on distance learning comes with their own concerns, said Greg J. Duncan, a professor of education at the University of California, Irvine. Research shows It means that younger children and children in low-income areas are more difficult to learn online than they are to actually learn online. He said learning gaps could persist for low-income children.

According to Duncan, wealthy families with more resources and workarounds will avoid risks much better than other families.

“Too many single infections,” he said, would probably refrain from wealthier families. “If your child is at least likely to get infected, he will be making decisions earlier than low-income households.”

Risks vary depending on the size of the school, but even the smallest schools face significant risks in the most stricken regions of the country.

In eight states, most people live in counties, and it is estimated that 100 schools are likely to be infected in the first week if schools start today. Georgia.

This list is even longer for a school of 500 students. The vast majority of people in 19 states, including California, Texas, and Illinois, live in counties and, if met in person, at least one infected person may appear in school during the first week. The class was held. Many of these areas currently choose to hold classes online.

Annette Campbell Anderson, deputy director of Johns Hopkins Center for Safe and Healthy Schools, said many parents were enthusiastic about the question of returning to school, and that solid instruction is needed.

“They want to look at the data to make them feel there is a model they can trust,” said Anderson. “I need it. I need this kind of data.”