Year of the Dragon: Revisiting the Dragon King

Newswise – 'Dragon King' theory proposed based on complexity physics. According to this theory, “Dragon King” events deviate from a power law distribution as a statistical outlier and are significantly more predictable. In 2012, coinciding with the Year of the Dragon in the Chinese lunar calendar, the European Physical Journal (EPJ) devoted a special issue to the “Dragon King” theory.

On January 1, 2024, a Mw 7.5 earthquake struck under Japan's Noto Peninsula. Prior to this seismic event, extensive studies had been conducted in the area, focusing primarily on the earthquake swarm that originated under the Noto Peninsula in November 2020.

By examining the scaling law of the identified sequence using data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Focal Mechanism Catalog, a team of researchers from China identified the Mw7.5 earthquake as exhibiting characteristics of a “seismic dragon king.”

“We applied the loading-unloading response ratio (LURR) to analyze earthquakes in the vicinity of the Noto Peninsula, where pre-mainshock seismicity primarily defined the aftershock zone of the 2007 Mw6.7 Noto-Hanto earthquake and the ongoing earthquake swarm,” explains the study's first author, July. “The minimum magnitude of smaller events gradually decreased from about Mv 2 to 0 between 1995 and 2006, likely due to the integration of Hi-net and other dense seismic networks during this period.”

The team published their findings in the journal KeAi Earthquake Research Advances.

The LURR method, proposed by Xiangzhou Yin, who serves as lead and co-author of this study, has seen successful application in many earthquakes globally. This approach, based on damage mechanics, leverages responses of seismic events to tidal pressure fluctuations induced by celestial bodies such as the Sun and Moon to measure the mechanical state of the medium. Liu, one of Yin's students, observed a precise alignment between the variation in LURR preceding the Mw7.5 earthquake and theoretical predictions.

Further investigations by the team are underway, however, and Yin cautioned caution in interpreting findings from retrospective case studies, stressing the need to treat such analyzes with caution despite their potential to advance understanding of earthquake mechanics. Meanwhile, Yongxian Zhang, another student of Yin and co-author, highlighted the prevalence of seismic swarms in China and around the world.

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References

DOI

10.1016/j.eqrea.2024.100290

Original source URL

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eqrea.2024.100290

Financing information

National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC, Contract No. U2039207 and 41704093).

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