Measures against major earthquakes: how should lessons learned from the Noto disaster be applied?

Editorial

16:24 Japan time, 3 March 2024

When it comes to predicting major earthquakes and taking countermeasures, it will be difficult to make all possible preparations. However, what is needed to minimize the damage? It is hoped that disaster management plans will be developed based on the lessons learned from the Noto Peninsula earthquake.

The Hokuriku region – which includes Wajima in Ishikawa Prefecture, where the Noto earthquake caused extensive damage – was previously considered an area at low risk for a major earthquake. The central government's earthquake measures have focused on potentially large earthquakes that could occur directly beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area and in the Nankai Basin.

The Noto disaster once again demonstrated how difficult it is to accurately predict a major earthquake. In earthquake-prone Japan, it is important to enhance preparedness on the basis that a major earthquake can occur anywhere and at any time.

The Basic Law on Disaster Management obliges central and local governments to draw up “basic disaster management plans” and “local disaster management plans,” respectively, while calling on them to conduct reviews based on the actual situation in the event of a major earthquake or other disaster. It is happening.

The Ishikawa Prefectural government has revised its disaster management plans almost every year, but its damage assumptions, on which the plans are based, have remained unchanged since it was drawn up in fiscal year 1997. The prefecture was reportedly planning to update the current assumption in fiscal year 2025.

The current assumption states that damage from an earthquake off the northern coast of the Noto Peninsula will be very localized and the severity of the disaster will be low. The Wajima City government's stock of emergency rations was based on this assumption, so they ran out on the day of the last major earthquake.

The earthquake occurred on New Year's Day, when there were more people staying in the city than usual because many had returned to their hometowns. This also had an impact on inventory.

Other local governments need to examine whether current damage estimates accurately reflect the latest findings on earthquake forecasts and changes in local communities, such as graying and population migration.

Every few years, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government reviews its assumptions about damage from a massive earthquake that could occur directly under the metropolitan area. The central government should not leave the formulation of harm assumptions to local governments, but should provide guidelines, such as calling for a review every ten years.

Building on the lessons learned from the Noto earthquake, there have been increasing movements across the country to review local disaster management plans.

The Aomori Prefectural Government recently noted in its plans that the prefecture and its municipalities should strengthen cooperation with the central government when treating debris and waste resulting from the disaster there, as huge amounts of such waste were disposed of in the earthquake – the Noto strike zones were a problem.

Many communities in the Noto areas have been isolated due to blocked roads, so the Fukushima Prefectural Government intends to increase food reserves in areas in the prefecture at risk of isolation.

How much food and other supplies must be prepared in advance so that local residents can survive for a week to 10 days until help arrives from outside areas? It is essential for every local government to make concrete estimates and incorporate them into their disaster management plans.

(From the Yomiuri Shimbun, March 3, 2024)

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