Earthquake Roadshow: The Science Behind the East Coast Fault Line

Georgia McComb from the East Coast Laboratory explains to Dannevirke residents about the Hikurangi subduction zone and seismic research. Photography: Layan War

There is no way to predict earthquakes, and they cannot be predicted within days or weeks, according to East Coast Laboratories.

But based on historical data and current research, there is a one in four chance that a major event will occur along the Hikurangi subduction zone in the next 50 years.

What a large earthquake, likely with a magnitude of around 9.0 on the Richter scale, could look like, and how we can prepare for it, was the subject of a roadshow organized by East Coast Laboratories in places up and down the East Coast, with two other earthquakes in Mahia and Hastings. next week.

Project manager Georgia McComb spoke to a small number of people in Dannevirke about the science behind the biggest mistake.

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McComb explained the research behind understanding earthquakes and the patterns that may indicate the potential for a major earthquake.

Tom Ward, who was featured in a German newspaper and picked up the pieces following the 1990 Mother's Day earthquake, centered near Dannevirk, owned Ward's Pharmacy, which is now Dannevirk Pharmacy.

Much of what is known about earthquakes has been learned in the past fifty years or so.

Until the late 1960s, the Earth's crust was thought to be solid, but it turns out to be divided into parts — called tectonic plates, McComb explains.

“Tectonic plates are constantly moving. They are moving in front of each other, towards each other or away from each other.

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The past 50 years have seen some tremendous technological advances but we've only learned some basic things about Earth, McComb says.

She went on to explain that places where tectonic plates meet are called boundary faults, and the east coast of the North Island lies at the border of the Australian tectonic plate and the Pacific tectonic plate.

“A lot of times, when you hear about faults, what you're hearing about is a crustal fault,” McComb says.

These are like cracks in the Earth's crust or small joints where stress and strain can build up.

It is these crustal faults that can cause large earthquakes, such as occurred in Napier in 1931 and in Canterbury more recently.

In the 1970s, researchers began mapping the sea floor and found a trench extending directly off the East Coast.

This was an important part of the learning, McComb says.

Another was about subduction, when one plate sinks beneath another.

“Subduction zones are important because they cause the largest earthquakes and tsunamis in the world.”

The real question for the researchers was whether we had experienced large earthquakes in the past and whether that meant there might be some in the future.

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“As long as people have been here, we've never had a major subduction zone earthquake,” McComb says.

The only way to know about past major events is to look for clues in the environment.

A 110km stretch of Kaikoura's coast was raised following the November 2016 earthquake.

These clues have been found in marine terraces, such as at Kaikoura, where a piece of seafloor has risen from the ocean.

Another is in marine organisms that died after uplift. Researchers can take samples and perform radiocarbon dating to find out the age of something.

McComb says those clues told them that over the past 7,500 years, there have been 10 major earthquakes larger than any anyone has ever witnessed.

Given this information and recent research, there is a 26% chance of a major earthquake occurring in the Hikurangi Subduction Zone in the next 50 years.

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Tsunamis were also discussed in the roadshow, with McComb providing examples of natural signs of tsunamis including tidal behavior and earthquakes.

She told the story of a young girl who was on holiday with her parents in Thailand at the time of the Boxing Day tsunami in 2004, who recognized signs of an coming tsunami and was able to warn people.

She says that the speed of a tsunami moving in the depths of the ocean is equivalent to the speed of a jet plane, and once it reaches the ground, it is equivalent to the speed of a car.

“So because our subduction zone is nice and close, we have about 15 minutes between a long or strong earthquake and a tsunami arriving.

“That's why it's so important that we learn about it, even though we live inland, because we can be that only person on the beach who knows the signs.”

In 2010, the Hikurangi subduction zone was identified as one of the top three regions in the world to study by the US Science Foundation, McComb says.

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This means more research money coming into the country, she says.

“This is important because it means we can get funding. The more investment we have, the faster we can learn new things.”

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