Claims paid on Japan's Noto Peninsula earthquake near US$415m

Insurance claims paid for the January 1 M7.5 earthquake that struck near the Noto Peninsula in Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan, amount to about US$415 million, according to the latest data from the General Insurance Association of Japan. The first typhoon caused particularly severe impacts on some towns across the four prefectures: Ishikawa, Niigata, Toyama, and Fukui.

There was significant property damage, and as insurance and reinsurance market loss estimates began to emerge, it was clear that the event was relatively significant for the domestic insurance industry, with some likely minor impacts on global reinsurance as well.

Now, we have our first proper view of how claim payments will flow, with the General Insurance Association of Japan (GIAJ) stating that the total has reached more than ¥61 billion as of March 8, 2024.

On that date the figure was converted to just under US$415 million, or at today's date closer to US$405 million due to currency fluctuations (note that it would have been more than US$430 million at the time of the earthquake).

GIAJ said that as of March 8, there were 115,211 accepted insurance claims for damage to homes and household goods, while 95,601 investigations have been conducted into claims submitted so far.

About 67,413 claim payments have been made, resulting in more than ¥61 billion in claim payments as of March 8.

To date, the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake loss is the seventh largest insured loss from a Japanese earthquake to date.

Remember, the figures from GIAJ cover member companies of the General Insurance Association of Japan and the Foreign Non-Life Insurance Association of Japan.

As a result, it does not include all losses incurred by global reinsurers operating in Japan, as some may not be members.

Recall that the first industry loss estimate released due to this Japanese earthquake was from modeling firm Karen Clark & ​​Company (KCC), which estimated insured losses from the earthquake at an estimated $6.4 billion.

The next company to issue estimates of insurance market losses due to the Japanese earthquake was CoreLogic, which said it was likely to be less than $5 billion.

Subsequently, Verrisk's Extreme Event Solutions business unit estimated insurance industry losses at between JPY 260 billion (US$1.8 billion) and JPY 480 billion (US$3.3 billion).

Finally, Moody's RMS estimated the amount to be between JPY435 billion and JPY870 billion (US$3 billion to US$6 billion).

Therefore, industry loss estimates from major insurance and reinsurance market risk modeling agencies have ranged from US$1.8 billion to US$6 billion, and the GIAJ data we have now, more than two months after the earthquake, may point to the truth. It falls somewhere in the lower half of this range at least.

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