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Boris Johnson could easily leave before 2024

There was a feeling of dj seen on UK politics this week as Boris Johnson’s government looked once again overwhelmed – just as they were in March.

Just fifteen days after speaking of a return to normalcy by Christmas, Johnson was forced to impose quarantine checks on Britons returning from Spain, to introduce restrictions in parts of the north of the England and warn of a possible return to national lockdown.

At the time of writing this article, Johnson is [2.1] on the Stock Exchange to leave office no earlier than 2024. With the Prime Minister looking scared again at the reluctance of the coronavirus to go away, it’s fair to wonder if it can really last that long in Downing Street.

When will Johnson leave?

Events are moving so rapidly that, even with the government’s 80-seat majority in Parliament, Johnson is not out of the question. 2021 [5.1], 2022 [7.0] or 2023 [7.0]. I draw the line to this year [8.0] but at this rate you never know.

Communication continues to be a problem for the government – so it’s no surprise that this week they announced a vacancy to be Johnson’s communications expert – as the restrictions on the north were hastily announced via Twitter Thursday evening.

The next morning Johnson gave an emergency press conference in which he seemed unusually pessimistic. He said plans to ease the lockdown were on hold – causing economic disruption and damage to businesses that were set to reopen. Chief Medical Officer of England, Chris whitty warned that pubs and restaurants may have to close again if schools were to fully reopen next month.

The reopening of schools is crucial for the government

The reopening of schools is a critical issue in how the public perceives the way the government is handling the pandemic. I don’t think it is too much to say that if the government is wrong it could break Johnson’s post as prime minister.

A month ago, when the education secretary Gavin Williamson unveiled a roadmap for getting children back to school for the new term, a poll for ITV’s Peston showed that 65% of parents thought it was achievable. As the date approaches, I feel that number will have decreased. This weekend, leading scientists joined with teachers’ unions in expressing serious doubts about the feasibility of the government’s plans.

How much of this can people take? A new poll released by Ipsos Mori shows that 70% believe the government has mismanaged the pandemic and 65% personally blame the PM.

Les conservateurs ne tardent pas à remplacer leurs dirigeants lorsqu’ils pensent que c’est dans leur intérêt électoral. La montée du chancelier Rishi Sunak, dont les cotes d’approbation positives contrastent fortement avec la baisse de popularité de Johnson, signifient que les conservateurs ont maintenant une formidable alternative à Johnson.

Il est toujours possible que les conséquences économiques de la pandémie et les critiques croissantes de la politique visant à mettre fin au programme de congé changent la donne. Mais pour l’instant Sunak est un digne favori pour succéder à Johnson à [4.5].

the the next general election is [1.48] take place as planned in 2024. But a new prime minister would increase the chances of an early election and bring 2023 [4.7] or 2022 [8.6] stake.

Can Moran cause upheaval and become the leader of the Lib Dem?

The ballots opened Thursday today as part of the competition to become the new leader of the Liberal Democrats. Acting Chief Ed Davey is [1.51] to win against her opponent Layla Moran [2.72].

Davey won more nominations than Moran, who said he wanted to give the party a fresh start after “10 years of decline”.

Layla Moran.jpg

The disastrous results of three consecutive general elections saw the Lib Dems slide into out of context as the fourth Westminster party behind the SNP.

Moran has ruled out working with the Tories, a rebuke to Davey who was a member of Con-Dem coalition government who was responsible for the downfall of the Lib Dems.

The winner will be announced on August 27.

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