Is New York City overdue for a major earthquake?

The earthquake that struck the northeast of the country on Friday morning shook the nerves but did not cause major damage. However, it has left many New Yorkers wondering how afraid they are of a larger earthquake near the city.

the answer? It's hard to say.

Some news reports indicate that a major earthquake is “imminent” in New York City because moderate earthquakes—magnitude 5 or greater—usually occur every few hundred years. The last of them occurred in the eighteenth century. In comparison, Friday's earthquake measured 4.8.

In 2008, Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory found that the risk of earthquakes in the New York City area was greater than previously thought. That's because smaller earthquakes regularly occur in New York City, such as the 1.7 magnitude earthquake recorded in Astoria, Queens, in January.

Experts warn that it is impossible to know when an earthquake will strike or how much damage it may cause. But if an earthquake much stronger than Friday's occurred near New York City, “it would be a different story,” Kishore S. said. Jaiswal, a research structural engineer with the USGS. Forecasts from the city indicate that such an earthquake could lead to dozens of injuries and billions of dollars in damage.

There were few reports of damage or injuries after Friday's earthquake. However, city officials said they were inspecting bridges, train tracks and buildings, and that people should be prepared for aftershocks for at least several days. There were 29 aftershocks as of Saturday afternoon, including one measuring 3.8, according to the US Geological Survey.

Earthquakes as strong as Friday's are “rare, but not unusual” near New York City, said Leslie Sonder, an assistant professor of geosciences at Dartmouth College.

Earthquakes are often caused by the friction and movement of Earth's tectonic plates underground. The energy released as a result travels in waves and causes the vibration that we feel above the ground.

Ms. Sunder said the impact of the earthquake would depend on the location of the epicenter, how deep the quake was, and the quality of building construction in the area.

“It's really hard to predict whether a building is going to have 5-magnitude damage, or whether it's going to take seven or eight,” she said.

Waves from an earthquake on the East Coast can be felt hundreds of miles away because of the type of rocks underground. She added that because the Northeast is so densely populated, many people eventually feel the effects and it becomes a topic of conversation, even if it doesn't cause much damage.

There are reasons to believe that New York City buildings may be vulnerable. But experts say many new buildings are designed to withstand earthquakes, and some older buildings have been retrofitted.

“There's an old saying that it's not earthquakes that kill people, it's buildings that kill people,” said Jeffrey Schlegelmilch, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University's Climate School. “That's why it's so important to put these things in place.”

The most significant tremors in New York City occurred in 1884, when a 5.2 magnitude earthquake with an epicenter off Coney Island shook the city. This earthquake was about four times as strong as Friday's quake, and its epicenter was dozens of miles from the city. (Friday's quake was centered in New Jersey, about 40 miles west of New York City.)

If an earthquake similar to the 1884 quake struck the city today, officials estimate it “would likely cause $4.7 billion in damage to buildings, transportation and facilities,” leaving 100 buildings destroyed and 2,000 people homeless.

Older brick buildings, buildings with storefronts at ground level, and buildings with “fragile” concrete frames are most susceptible to cracking and damage, said Abi Aguire, a professor of forensic structural engineering at Drexel University.

Building codes for earthquake safety emerged around the 1930s, and many major cities have strengthened their codes in recent years to help their infrastructure withstand strong tremors.

For example, the downtown Port Authority of New York and New Jersey spent more than $50 million more than 15 years ago to upgrade the bus terminal so it could withstand damage from a seismic event.

New York City generally has plans for all possible disaster scenarios, said Sarah Kaufman, director of New York University's Rudin Center for Transportation.

“We probably have the best emergency management department in the country,” Ms. Kaufman said.

Once an earthquake strikes, officials' attention quickly turns to assessing the damage.

Consolidated Edison, an electric, gas and steam company that serves 10 million people in New York City and Westchester County, has protocols in place to check for damage with a focus on its gas distribution network. Matthew Kitschke, head of the facility, said that after Friday's earthquake, no damage was found.

However, Mr. Kitschke urged anyone who smells gas to call 911 or notify the company.

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