New Jersey earthquake draws attention to potentially ill-defined fault lines

The fault that exploded under New Jersey on Friday morning was likely an ancient, dormant line in the ground, awakened by geological forces in a region where earthquakes are rare and seismic risks are not fully understood.

The 4.8 magnitude earthquake was the strongest to hit New Jersey in more than 200 years.

The US Geological Survey said in a press conference that more earthquakes are likely, as statistical modelers estimate the probability of an earthquake of magnitude 5 or higher in the coming weeks at 3%.

A 4.0 magnitude aftershock struck New Jersey on Friday evening. The USGS website has reported at least 11 aftershocks in the area so far. The US Geological Survey said that statistical models based on previous earthquakes indicate that there may be as many as 27 aftershocks of magnitude 2 or greater over the next week.

As the tremor subsided on Friday, scientists began working to determine exactly where the rupture occurred.

“This is an area with many ancient faults that could be reactivated at any time. At this time, the fault that caused the earthquake is not yet known,” said Jessica Jobe, a research geologist with the USGS.

A 4.8-magnitude earthquake shook the East Coast shortly after 10:20 a.m. Friday, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Scientists suspect that the quake may have originated in the Ramapo Fault Zone in the Newark Basin. The error system contains a branching network of errors. Some have been mapped but others may not be known, so it is possible that the fault where Friday's quake occurred is not marked on the map.

“It's possible it was caused by an unnamed fault, but we don't really know. It's hard to know in a place with such a mixture,” said Dara Goldberg, a USGS geophysicist. “It could be on a branch of a fault.” Ramapo. “It could be something nearby, we're not quite sure.”

Scientists said that the fault zone is old and complex. Pinpointing exactly what happened will help researchers understand what to expect from the region in the future and better deal with seismic risks in the Northeast.

Unlike the West Coast, where tectonic plates meet at the border and create a seismic hazard that runs down the spine of the coast, the tectonic hazard in the Northeast has its roots in ancient history: faults persisted due to tectonic processes that no longer exist, leaving a scattering of fractures and points Weakness.

First responders and firefighters attend a call to inspect homes after the April 5, 2024 earthquake in Lebanon, New Jersey. Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

Stress slowly builds up on this fault network, sometimes causing slip, triggering an earthquake, said Frederick J. Simons, a professor of geosciences at Princeton University.

“Stress continues to grow at very slow rates,” Simons said. “It's like an old house that's groaning and groaning.”

Compared to the West Coast, earthquakes on the East Coast can be felt over a great distance and can cause more pronounced shaking relative to their size because the rocks in the area are often older, harder, and denser.

“These are rocks that can transmit energy well,” Simons said.

Friday's quake was widely felt from Washington, D.C., to Boston. It was also very shallow, with the US Geological Survey saying it likely ruptured less than 3 miles below the surface.

“The more superficial or closer it is, the more we feel it as humans,” Simons said.

However, the strength of earthquakes in the region is limited by the length of the faults.

“The size of the earthquake is directly proportional to the length of the fault that moved,” Goldberg said. “In the northeast, the faults are not very long.”

Felix Waldhauser, a seismologist and research professor at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, said the quake highlighted the need to better understand earthquake risks in the region.

“We don't understand the faults here very well. If we don't understand the faults, it's difficult to assess the risk,” Waldhauser said.

He lamented the fact that the USGS in 2019 cut funding for the Lamont-Doherty Cooperative Seismic Network, which he said previously had 45 seismic data collection stations across the Northeast but is now down to about 20.

“In an ideal world, we would have our own network running and recording the data, analyzing the data, and knowing exactly where the event is,” he said.

Waldhauser said Friday afternoon that he was trying to gather colleagues to deploy seismometers around the quake's epicenter, near Whitehouse Station in New Jersey, to record aftershocks, which could help identify the main fault line.

“We're trying to bring people together. I'm not sure if that's going to happen,” he said.

However, a dense local network of equipment is most useful for monitoring small quakes and doing detailed science, but is not a requirement for understanding larger quakes like the one that occurred Friday, Goldberg said.

“Anything within 4 degrees, we can identify it at a global set of stations,” she said. “For the magnitude of earthquakes that are relevant to society and people's daily lives, we can do well without that intensity.”

Simons, who grabbed his coat and rushed out of his Princeton office when the quake struck, said the 35 seconds of “violent, powerful, long” tremors made for an exciting morning and provided a reminder of the nation’s less seismically active coastline: “It’s like being a little out of shape and having “On little warning – a mini-stroke or heart attack.”

“The Earth gives us energy that we can't control. Let's keep building good buildings, enforcing building codes and preparing for disasters, so we can respond when the next disaster strikes,” Simons said.

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