Could weather events such as snow be the real cause of earthquakes?

Photo: @frankramspot | iStock What is the real cause of earthquakes? Researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have revealed a link between weather events and seismic activity

For centuries, scientists have focused on the collision of tectonic plates and subsurface faults as the main causes of earthquakes. However, the MIT study, led by Assistant Professor William Frank of MIT's Department of Earth, suggests that certain weather conditions, such as heavy snowfall and rain, can also play an important role in triggering seismic events.

Weather events, earthquakes and seismic activity

The study focuses on a series of earthquakes that struck the Noto Peninsula in Japan, revealing a relationship between intense rainfall episodes and seismic activity. “We see that snowfall and other environmental loading at the surface affects the stress state underground, and the timing of heavy rainfall is closely linked to the onset of this seismic swarm,” according to Frank.

In contrast to a typical earthquake sequence, which is characterized by a mainshock followed by an aftershock, the Noto Peninsula experienced an “earthquake swarm” with multiple earthquakes continuing without any obvious mainshock.

The researchers analyzed seismic data over a period of 11 years, and noted the synchronization between changes in seismic velocity and seasonal patterns of snowfall and precipitation.

Earthquake swarm

Through modeling, the team demonstrated how seasonal rainfall affects underground pore fluid pressure, which affects the propagation of seismic waves. “When it rains or snows, it adds weight, which increases pore pressure, allowing seismic waves to travel through them more slowly,” Frank explains. “When all that weight is removed, through evaporation or runoff, suddenly, the pore pressure drops and the seismic waves become faster.”

The study found that heavy snowfall events, in particular, were strongly linked to the timing of earthquakes on the Noto Peninsula. Frank emphasizes that while tectonic activity remains the primary cause of earthquakes, climatic factors can serve as secondary influencing factors.

Frank and his team expect that similar weather-triggered seismic activity could occur in other regions around the world. As climate change leads to more extreme rainfall events, the impact of weather on earthquakes may become more pronounced in the future.

“When we first want to understand how earthquakes work, we look at plate tectonics, because that is the number one reason why earthquakes happen and always will,” says Frank. “But, what other things can affect when and how an earthquake occurs? That's when you start moving to second-order controlling factors, and climate is clearly one of those factors.”

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