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How is New Zealand preparing for catastrophic earthquakes and tsunamis?
General location of the offshore portion of the Hikurangi subduction zone.
New Zealand needs to prepare for the possibility of a massive earthquake, even if there is no way of knowing when it might happen, a seismologist has warned.
Earlier this week, the National Resilience to Nature Challenge was hosted on Te Papa, including a talk on the threats posed to the country by major natural disasters.
This included focusing on our largest fault – the Hikurangi subduction zone. During a session on catastrophic risks, the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) detailed its work over the past 18 months, using the 9.1 magnitude Hikurangi earthquake and tsunami as its “worst-of-the-worst” planning scenario.
If that earthquake occurred, and assuming that 70% of people were able to evacuate, more than 22,000 people would die – most of them in a tsunami – and nearly 26,000 others would be injured.
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About 400,000 people will be displaced and 30,000 homes destroyed or damaged by the tsunami alone.
GNS Science seismologist Bill Fry was part of that committee. The point of the planning was not to create panic, but we must plan and test systems to make sure we limit the damage if something like this happens, he told The Front Page.
“By understanding how likely these things are to happen, what they might look like when they do happen, and then using that information to predict impacts, we can test those systems that can improve our outcomes if they happen in our lifetime,” Fry said.
Screenshot of the GNS Science model of the 8.9 magnitude Hikurangi earthquake. Photo/GNS Science
He said that given New Zealand's 20 years of seismic activity, the country “always has the potential for a major earthquake and tsunami” that we must be prepared for.
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“There will never be a situation where we go through time and say, 'Okay, all the earthquakes are over, I'm done with that, move on to something else.'” And it's this realization that leads us to do things like test response systems or even develop new tools to help us respond, things like tsunami early warning, the ability to look at the waves, and monitor tsunami waves before they reach our shores. “
We can also use this information for long-term planning,” Matt Gerstenberger, a seismologist at GNS Science, told The Front Page.
“You look at the potential earthquakes that could happen, the impacts that they could have, and that allows for kind of long-term planning for things related to building code and different… urban planning type settings.”
While we can plan and test our response to an earthquake or tsunami, Fry said we won't be able to predict when the next big earthquake will occur.
“The National Earthquake Hazard Model is a model we use to give probability estimates of the shaking we might experience over the next 50 to 100 years in New Zealand… Probabilities are the odds of tremors occurring at a particular location.”
Listen to the full episode to hear more about how experts prepare for natural disasters, and how concerned they are about national disaster threats.
The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am. The podcast is presented by Chelsea Daniels, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in global news and crime/justice reporting who joined NZME in 2016.
You can follow the podcast on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Sources 2/ https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/how-new-zealand-is-preparing-for-catastrophic-earthquake-tsunami-the-front-page/IVZHQBD3QZEAFHFGM66BFA44IA/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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