There are 812 earthquake-prone buildings in the Wellington region. Photography: Mark Mitchell
The government has extended deadlines for repairing earthquake-prone buildings by four years while it reviews rules that have been criticized as unfair. Some landlords are relieved to have some breathing room, but is it safe to give them more time to fix their buildings, and does that make a mockery of current rules? Georgina Campbell investigates.
Apartment owner Ian Potter says being given an extra four years to decide the fate of his earthquake-prone building is a “godsend”.
“The deferral gives us time to reassess, so that the construction industry can stabilize a bit from the madness it was in a year or two ago.”
The three-storey building in central Wellington has retail outlets on the ground floor and four apartments on the upper floors. It is rated at 17 per cent of the new build standard. Anything less than 34 percent is considered earthquake prone.
The deadline for its reinforcement expires in January 2025. The building would likely have remained empty had it not been for government intervention.
Those who live in multi-ownership apartment buildings have long argued that earthquake-prone building codes are being used as a “blunt tool.” Hundreds have faced sleepless nights on the brink of financial disaster, and say they fund public safety outcomes even though the public doesn't use their buildings.
Their years of pressure have finally paid off. The government announced it would introduce a review of the rules and extended reform deadlines by four years.
The announcement was bittersweet for some because Cabinet ministers also decided to end a scheme offering deferred repayment loans of up to $250,000, providing a lifeline to owners struggling to pay for upgrading their homes.
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Potter and his colleagues have known that their building is vulnerable to earthquakes for more than a decade, and he's keenly aware that people may not be very sympathetic to their situation in light of that.
However, over the years, they have conducted exploratory drilling and obtained numerous engineering evaluations and designs. They also considered demolishing or selling the building.
Owners were advised to wait until other buildings were strengthened because engineering solutions could improve over time and potentially become cheaper.
More than 471 earthquake-prone construction deadlines were scheduled to expire across the country between April 2024 and the end of 2027 before the government's announcement. Photography: Mark Mitchell
Instead, there was a global pandemic that sent the construction market into overdrive.
For about 18 months, Potter has struggled to convince anyone in the construction industry to bother building, let alone provide firm quotes on the cost.
Potter said he just wanted to move forward in a way that wouldn't cripple the owners economically.
“No one has done anything wrong, it's just bad luck that we have buildings that don't meet standards that weren't there when we bought them.”
The chief engineer says people should have more time to strengthen buildings
More than 471 earthquake-prone construction deadlines were scheduled to expire across the country between April 2024 and the end of 2027 before the government's announcement.
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Speaking to the Herald in a personal capacity, Rob Gorrie, senior structural engineer at Becca, said the difficulties in meeting these deadlines would not go away simply by reviewing and extending the timeframes. However, it provided an opportunity for discussion.
Some deadlines in Wellington are as long as seven and a half years. The jury said the urgency for short timeframes was driven by the February 2011 Christchurch earthquake and advocacy from the likes of Anne Brewer – the sole survivor of an accident in which a bus was crushed by falling rocks.
Asked if those time frames were realistic at all, Gori said he viewed the situation as a long-term, generational problem.
Wellington's Civic Square has become a graveyard of earthquake-prone buildings. Photography: Mark Mitchell
So he would not be disappointed if the review gave people more time, but he would not be happy if the need to modernize buildings diminished.
“We must continue in Wellington to maintain this continuous improvement of buildings, and it would be disappointing if the stress on that stopped, in my view for relatively short-term gain.”
He said that in the context of 50 years, for example, another four years was a relatively small drop in the bucket.
“The time frame should reflect the risks. Although the risk is very high in the event of an earthquake, the probability of an earthquake occurring is very low, so the risk is very low overall.”
Regarding whether it is safe to extend deadlines, Jori said that “safe” is not an absolute term.
The government's decision boils down to betting
John Tukey, a professor of construction at AUT, said the area was safe as long as no major earthquakes occurred soon.
“The additional risk exists solely on the basis of the possibility of a new major earthquake resulting in significant property damage or deaths occurring in the period between the old deadline and the new deadline.
“The buildings involved are no more deteriorated or substandard than they were before. The additional risk is likely to be very marginal, as the random time between the arrival of a major earthquake is relatively low.”
The Reading Cinema Complex at Courtenay Place has been closed since 2019 due to the risk of an earthquake. Photography: Mark Mitchell
Toki said the government's decision was completely understandable from a political standpoint, which was to relieve some of the pressure on property owners in a difficult economic environment.
“Recent increases in the cost of living, inflation in construction costs, and rising interest rates have seriously depleted the ability of property owners to raise capital to do business.”
However, Toki said it still poses a political risk to the government.
“The worst-case scenario is two or three medium-sized shocks in relatively quick succession, which could lead to significant damage.”
Officials warned that extending the deadlines may be considered unfair
Officials at the Department for Business, Innovation and Employment provided advice to Building and Construction Minister Chris Pink in December about the potential “pause” of reform deadlines, which was released to the Herald under the Official Information Act.
They warned that there were risks in extending the deadlines.
The threat to life safety will not be mitigated for much longer, putting people at constant risk in the event of an earthquake.
“In the meantime, cost pressures, difficulties accessing financing and insurance coverage, and constraints on sector capacity are likely to continue to increase.
“Without intervention, other barriers to reform will continue to exist once the deadline extension expires, such as difficulty reaching consensus among owners and lack of support to navigate the reform process.”
Without change, a large number of buildings could remain empty, which would have a devastating impact on the economy in cities like Wellington, says Building and Construction Minister Chris Pink. Photography: Mark Mitchell
This means postponing the issue of impending deadlines rather than resolving it, officials said.
Owners will also continue to face pressures outside the rules, including market demand for buildings with higher seismic ratings and insurance requirements, officials said.
Those who have already repaired their buildings and met their legal obligations may see the deadline extension for other building owners as unfair, they said.
“There is also a risk that building owners will stop planning remediation until extended deadlines expire or a system review is completed, which could take several years.”
Asked whether it was safe to extend the deadlines, Susanna Toulmin, director of building policy at MBIE, said the main aim of the rules was to reduce risks to the life safety of people using existing buildings over time.
“During the review, risks to life safety are likely to remain unmitigated in some earthquake-prone buildings for a longer period of time. However, it is difficult to estimate what increased life safety risks this might create, as it is not possible to predict when and where an event will occur.” Big earthquake.
Toulmin encouraged building owners to continue remediation plans where possible and stressed that when they meet regulatory requirements under current earthquake-prone building codes, they cannot be required to do so again.
“There are no intention of any changes following review that would require re-treatment.”
When asked if the extension makes a mockery of current rules, Toulmin acknowledged there are risks that building owners may not meet the extended deadlines because they view it as a “shift.”
However, she said it was also clear that compliance was a challenge for some building owners who were unlikely to meet current deadlines.
“After seven years of implementing the national EPB system, we now understand how current settings work in practice, including what works and what does not work, or may not work as intended.
“The review provides the opportunity to build on these lessons and re-evaluate whether there are ways to address life safety risks in existing buildings that are more effective and efficient.”
Georgina Campbell is a Wellington-based reporter with a special interest in local government, transport and earthquakes. She joined the Herald in 2019 after working as a broadcast journalist.
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Sources
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2/ https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/is-the-governments-extension-of-earthquake-prone-building-remediation-deadlines-safe/N3W3CQIKMJGFNMDCW5KWAOERHY/
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