Stress Test: The April Earthquake and Taiwan's Resilience

The international community quickly responded with an outpouring of support for Taiwan, while neighboring China's response followed a familiar pattern, with Beijing exploiting the disaster to increase its influence and demonstrate its declared dominance over the island.

Naiu Kuo, Andrew Scobell of the United States Institute of Peace, and Rosie Levin of the US-China Education Fund discuss the local response, how the international community intervened, and what this incident shows about cross-Strait relations.

What does the response look like to a local earthquake in Taiwan?

KO: The US Geological Survey measured the quake at 7.4, while the local seismic agency measured it at 7.2 at a depth of 15.5 kilometers, which is a shallower depth and generally tends to be more damaging. A month after the earthquake, more than 1,000 aftershocks were recorded, the largest of which reached a magnitude of 6.5. The Taiwan Seismological Center expects aftershocks to continue for three to six months.

Without Taiwan's advanced earthquake prevention and disaster management efforts, the human toll could have been much higher. For example, the 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria last February killed more than 55,000 people and injured nearly 130,000 others; A much smaller earthquake that struck New Zealand in 2011 with a magnitude of 6.7 destroyed much of the central city of Christchurch.

Taiwan lies at the intersection of two tectonic plates, and experiences between 700 and more than 2,000 tangible earthquakes on average each year. In addition, following the catastrophic 7.7 magnitude earthquake in 1999, known as the 921 earthquake, which killed more than 2,400 people, Taiwan has greatly improved its earthquake resilience.

Through cooperation between the government and civil society, measures have been implemented to mitigate potential damage caused by natural disasters, including enforcing strict building codes, strengthening disaster management laws and conducting large-scale education campaigns and earthquake safety drills. Taiwan's National Fire Agency, which plays a crucial role in disaster prevention and rescue, highlights the value of previous national-level disaster relief exercises in Hualien to current relief operations. Building on exchanges with the United States in recent years, these exercises used improvised simulations to closely resemble real disaster scenarios.

Taiwan's response to the earthquake this time also demonstrates its strong and well-organized efforts in relief and disaster management. Following the earthquake, the Ministry of the Interior quickly established the Central Disaster Response Center, with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and Premier Chen Chien-yen supervising and directing relief efforts. The Ministry of National Defense mobilized the armed forces to assist in disaster recovery and provide support to local governments. Immediately after this earthquake, local authorities, government units and NGOs also cooperated to evacuate residents in downtown Hualien. Relief coordination efforts were particularly strengthened after Taiwan was hit by a 6.4-magnitude earthquake in 2016 that killed more than 100 people and another 6.2-magnitude earthquake in 2018 that killed 17 people.

Taipei continues to learn from its experience in disaster prevention and management. One example is the nationwide emergency mobile phone alert system that the government will use to notify the public of a potential Chinese airstrike. Although two separate earthquake warnings were issued seconds after the quake struck, residents in Taipei, New Taipei and Kaohsiung reported that they did not receive the alert. Taipei has pledged to issue a broader emergency alert on the island, which will play a crucial role in informing and evacuating Taiwanese citizens if China launches an attack on the island.

How has the international community reacted, and what does that tell us?

KO AND LEVIN: The diplomatic statements and foreign aid mobilized in response to the earthquake offer a snapshot of Taiwan's standing on the world stage. Taiwan has received widespread support from the international community, which extends beyond countries that maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taipei. A statement by US National Security Council spokeswoman Adrian Watson said, “The United States is ready to provide any necessary assistance.” Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Japan is ready to provide any necessary support to Taiwan, its “neighbor across the sea.”

Japan and Taiwan have developed a particularly strong bond in disaster relief efforts, constantly supporting each other during times of crisis by sharing expertise, resources and personnel. Following the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, Taiwan's government and citizens collectively donated more than $250 million, making Taiwan the world's leading donor. This cooperation has strengthened close relations between the two sides and emphasized the importance of regional cooperation in responding to natural disasters.

In President William Lai Ching-te's inauguration speech on May 20, he said post-earthquake recovery work was still underway, and thanked the international community for its interest and support. Taiwan's presidential office spokesman said that within one day after the earthquake, a total of 88 political figures from allies and like-minded countries – including the Philippines, India, Canada and the Council of Europe – expressed their condolences and support for Taiwan.

In terms of tangible foreign aid, the Japanese government donated $1 million, the South Korean government $500,000, the Czech Republic $150,000, and the Thai government contributed $30,000. Taipei has also received many private donations from other countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, and Australia. Türkiye provided technical expertise, based on its experience in using drones in disaster relief.

This response demonstrates the rhetorical power of Taiwan's disaster response capabilities. Sandra O'Dekirk, the top US diplomat in Taiwan, emphasized the soft power component of the response: “Taiwan has demonstrated a successful model of disaster prevention, disaster management, and humanitarian rescue for communities around the world.” Even as the number of countries that officially recognize Taiwan continues to dwindle, this global response shows that efforts to integrate Taiwan into networks of like-minded democracies have been successful in many respects. At a time of weakness, many countries were willing to quickly mobilize resources and provide assistance to Taiwan.

What did China offer, how did Taiwan respond, and what does this tell us about cross-Strait relations?

Scoble and Kuo: On the one hand, China is a logical source of aid and assistance in the event of a natural disaster in Taiwan because it is close by, has significant humanitarian aid and disaster relief capabilities, as well as cultural and linguistic connections. On the other hand, China is far from being an uninterested or disinterested bystander. Indeed, the Chinese Communist Party that rules the mainland insists that Taiwan is an integral part of China, and for seven decades has sought to use every means available to absorb the island. Although the Chinese Communist Party has called its policy towards the island “peaceful unification” since the 1980s, the use of military force has never been ruled out. In recent years, the Chinese Communist Party has increased its coercive activities in and around Taiwan and launched a coordinated diplomatic war to pressure Taiwan's international space, including preventing Taiwan from obtaining state recognition and from participating in international organizations.

Moreover, the Chinese Communist Party has seized opportunities presented by Taiwan's past disasters to increase its influence and influence and exercise its sense of ownership over the island. Following the 1999 earthquake, Taiwan refused help from the Chinese Communist Party, and the island's foreign minister condemned Beijing for exploiting the situation and intervening for political gain. The Chinese Communist Party took advantage of Taipei's lack of representation at the United Nations and stood in the way of the world body's ability to provide aid, causing delays in rescue and relief work. A 1999 opinion poll indicated that a majority of the Taiwanese people (54.9%) did not view Beijing's $100,000 donation as a goodwill gesture.

In April 2024, Taipei immediately rejected Beijing's offer of assistance, likely due to a lack of confidence in Beijing's intentions. A few hours after the earthquake, Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office announced, “Mainland China expresses deep concern and extends sincere condolences to the compatriots of Taiwan affected by the disaster. We pledge to closely monitor the situation and stand ready to provide assistance in disaster relief efforts.” In response, Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council issued a short statement the same day rejecting Beijing's offer of assistance.

The next day, Taipei condemned China as “impudent” after Beijing's deputy ambassador to the United Nations, Geng Shuang, thanked the world for its concern about a strong earthquake on the island. A Taiwanese Foreign Ministry spokesman condemned Geng for “thanking the international community on behalf of Taiwan,” describing it as “political calculations and cognitive warfare on the international stage.”

The Chinese Communist Party's public rhetoric moves public opinion on the mainland. As mentioned above, the People's Liberation Army has significant disaster relief capabilities. On mainland social media platforms, comments such as: “Shouldn't the People's Liberation Army be sent to the island for disaster relief?” It gained significant traction in the days following the earthquake.

During his meeting with former Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou on April 10, Xi Jinping said: “I extend my condolences to the victims and express my sympathy to the people affected by the disaster.” Then on April 27, a TAO spokesperson said that the Chinese Communist Party was willing to donate prefabricated homes through Red Cross organizations to Taiwan. Beijing announced the offer on the same day as a meeting between a KMT legislative delegation and CCP Politburo member Wang Huning, likely as a positive gesture in anticipation of a change of administration in Taipei. In response, Taipei officials stated that unlike the situation after the 921 earthquake, there was no need for prefabricated homes in the disaster area.

Previous negative experiences regarding disaster aid from Beijing to Taipei, coupled with recent post-earthquake interactions, suggest that Beijing is likely to seize any opportunity to assert its sovereignty claim over Taiwan. Despite the earthquake, the PLA maintained its regular operational tempo for gray zone activity – daily air and sea provocations around Taiwan – in the day and days following the earthquake. While the future of cross-Strait interactions seems likely to remain intact, it is unclear how Beijing will respond to the new administration of President Lai, who was sworn in in Taipei on May 20.

Rosie Levin is Executive Director of the Chinese American Education Fund.

Naiu Kuo is a research analyst for the China Program at the United States Institute of Peace.

Photo: A search and rescue team prepares to enter a tilted building after a 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Hualien, Taiwan, on Wednesday, April 3, 2024. (Lam Yik Fai/The New York Times)

The opinions expressed in this post are those of the author(s).

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