Site of a major political earthquake

“Uttar Pradesh represents arguably the biggest political earthquake of the election” | Image source: Annie

In a moment that reflects the two eras when the country's dominant party tasted political defeat (Congress in 1977 and 1989), the stormy winds of change are blowing from the heart of India in 2024. While the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance may pass the NDA in absolute defeat, It also appears that his victorious political warship has been blown up on the choppy political waters of the Ganges plain.

Of the 225 individual seats that form part of the Indian heartland, the NDA was limited to 149 seats, losing 31 seats. While the India bloc got 74 seats.

The return of “normal politics”

The BJP's share in the Indian belt was close to 80% in the last two elections, after it defeated the Congress Party and the opposition Mandal formations. In this general election, the BJP's share in the district dropped significantly to around 60%, slightly above the 55% threshold that the saffron party crossed in the late 1990s (in 1996, 1998 and 1999). In this regard, the BJP's current performance is more in line with its traditional strengths in the region but falls far short of the high water mark of the two Modi waves.

On a large scale, it represents the return of “normal politics” in India's heartland.

Apart from the master narrative about the receding Modi wave and the uneven performance of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, India's heartland casts a mix of mini-narratives, which vary on a state-by-state basis.

Uttar Pradesh represents arguably the biggest political earthquake the election has seen. The India Bloc beat the NDA alliance by 44-34 seats. The India Bloc beat the NDA alliance by 43-36 seats. The Samajwadi Party (SP), which won 37 seats, emerged as the single largest party, defeating the BJP in the critical Purvanchal region.

For the first time since 2014, the Socialist Party's Mandal politics trumped the BJP's Hindu nationalism. This was achieved through a well-executed strategy of including Dalits in the enlarged Mandal coalition (what SP leader Akhilesh Yadav calls the Pichda-Dalit-Alpsanghaiak bloc or PDA bloc). The party's increasing representation of Dalits (including in unreserved seats), coupled with its alliance with the Congress, succeeded in wresting a section of Dalits from the Bahujan Samaj Party and the BJP towards the All India Bloc. The BJP's loss in Ayodhya to the Dalit face of the SP, Awadesh Prasad, marks the unforgettable culmination of the SP's winning strategy.

Perhaps the BJP's only solace lies in its impressive performance in western Uttar Pradesh, helped in part by its alliance with the Rashtriya Lok Dal. Meanwhile, the Congress registered its best performance in the state since 2009, winning six seats. The Congress Party's rise in its former stronghold Awadh was made possible by the unstinted support it received from the SP, with Akhilesh Yadav joining the rallies on behalf of its candidates.

In Bihar, Rajasthan and Haryana

In Bihar, the Janata Dal (United) matched the BJP's performance, with both parties winning twelve seats each (the JD(U) contested one seat less). Unlike the previous Assembly elections in Bihar, the BJP's allies (JD(U) and Lok Janshakti Party) returned home with a higher rate of strikes on their contested seats than the BJP. The results not only indicate the BJP's continued dependence on its alliance partners in the state, but also indicate an increase in their bargaining power vis-à-vis the BJP ahead of the crucial Assembly elections next year. While the India Bloc (Rashtriya Janata Dal, Congress and Communist Party of India) alliance was limited to just six seats (up from one seat), the alliance was able to significantly reduce the gap in vote shares with the NDA. The India Bloc campaign led by Tejaswi Yadav also managed By providing a strong discourse on livelihood concerns, which could stand her in good stead in the upcoming Assembly elections.

The elections in Rajasthan and Haryana witnessed a nascent revival of the Congress Party in the Hindi belt. As in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress Party's fortunes here have been boosted by the return of its Dalit voter base, attracted to its agenda of social justice and protection of the Constitution. While the BJP held on to a majority of seats in Rajasthan, the Congress managed to wrest eight seats from its grip. In Haryana, the Congress succeeded in splitting power, winning five out of ten seats.

The Congress' creditable performance in semi-rural and rural areas in both the states is largely due to its focus on the issues of farmer distress and wealth concentration. For the first time since 2009, the Congress party swept the Jat belt of Haryana in the national elections. At the same time, the party has also brought back into its fold a large section of Jats in Rajasthan, who were once the bedrock of the party in the state, and who have been steadily deserting it since the late 1990s.

BJP strongholds

The Bharatiya Janata Party maintained its strongholds in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, eliminating the Congress Party in Madhya Pradesh and confining it to one seat in Chhattisgarh. Beyond its core Hindutva appeal, what seems to have worked for the BJP is its stable appeal among tribal voters, who have largely remained within the saffron fold despite Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Guddu Nyai Yatra earlier this year. These are also the countries where the Modi wave does not seem to have abated. The BJP's dominance here stems partly from a lack of clear ideological challenge, and partly from a leadership crisis within the ranks of the Congress party. These elections also mark Madhya Pradesh as the prominent saffron stronghold, after Gujarat, deepening its more than two-decade-long dominance over the central state.

The findings remind us that the dynamics of Hindutva challenge operate in the same way here as in other regions, constituting a powerful ideological opposition to majoritarian religious politics.

Asim Ali is a political researcher and columnist

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