SoCal earthquake series: Are they telling us something bigger?

A 3-D map of last week's subsurface El Sereno earthquakes found that they were just below the level of the Puente Hills Fault, a terrifying fault that has received far less attention than the San Andreas but is capable of generating catastrophic tremors.

A 7.5-magnitude earthquake on the Puente Hills Fault — which runs beneath densely populated areas of Los Angeles and Orange counties — could kill 3,000 to 18,000 people, according to the U.S. Geological Survey and the Southern California Earthquake Center.

That's worse than the hypothetical death toll of 1,800 people from a 7.8-magnitude quake that started on the southern San Andreas fault near the Mexican border and extends all the way into the mountains of Los Angeles County.

“This is a very large fault, located in the worst place you could imagine for a fault beneath Los Angeles,” Dolan said.

The Puente Hills fault was only recently discovered – in 1999 – by John Shaw of Harvard University and Peter Scherer of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, who concluded that the 1987 Whittier Narrows earthquake, which killed eight people, had He tore off a small portion of the crack. From this error.

The Puente Hills Fault is especially worrisome when it fully explodes because of what's above it — downtown Los Angeles, which includes many old and outdated buildings, as well as large swaths of southeastern Los Angeles County, the San Gabriel Valley and the north. Orange County.

“This thing is massive,” Dolan said.

The fault resembles a deep underground slope — deepest along the Interstate 210 corridor, where it is about 10 miles deep, and deepest about a mile south of USC, where it lies 2 miles below the surface.

This trend is especially bad if the entire fault ruptures, because shaking typically starts at the deepest end and moves to the shallower end, meaning the shaking energy is likely to move from the outskirts of the foothills toward the city center.

“Where is all this energy going to end up…? It's going to end up at the top of the cliff,” Dolan said. “And that, unfortunately, is in the heart of the Los Angeles metropolitan area.”

The tremors will also reach the edge of the Los Angeles Basin, a six-mile-deep bathtub-shaped hole in the underlying bedrock filled with weak sand and gravel eroded from the mountains and forming the flat land where millions of people live. The district extends from Beverly Hills through southeast Los Angeles County and into northern Orange County.

When earthquake energy is sent into these sedimentary basins, it amplifies the intensity of the shaking — perhaps 10 times worse than if someone were on bedrock — and causes the vibration to shake like a bowl of jelly, prolonging the duration, Dolan said.

“So the direction of Puente Hills, in terms of its location and geometry, is a particularly dangerous mistake for Los Angeles,” Dolan said.

There is one upside, Dolan said: Unlike the San Andreas Fault, which generates a large earthquake on average every 100 years or so, the Puente Hills Fault only generates large earthquakes every two thousand years.

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