The next huge earthquake in British Columbia is more dramatic than first thought

For decades, you've been told it's coming — a devastating “super-earthquake” along British Columbia's southern coast — and new research suggests it may be more dramatic than expected when it finally hits.

Scientists are getting more detailed data on a major fault along the West Coast stretching from California to British Columbia

(Courtesy subduction plate structure and large thrust formation from deep seismic imaging associated with Cascadia earthquake rupture segmentation)

The newly published information comes from a 2021 ocean expedition that used sound waves to explore and map the 1,000-kilometre-long Cascadian subduction zone, including a section along Washington and southern Vancouver Island that caught the attention of seismologists like John Cassidy of Natural Resources Canada.

“The research has shown different cross-sections, which is important for improving our estimates of what we can expect during a future earthquake, which is one of these large magnitude 9.0 earthquakes,” Cassidy told CityNews. “We’ve known about this for about 30 years, and we can estimate the shaking, but we Now we get into a lot of details.”

This includes the geological features of the adjacent part of BC, where the edges of tectonic plates have been shown to be smoother, flatter and shallower than in other areas.

Along the fault, where movement is typically measured in centimeters per year, Cassidy says this section has the potential for massive slip when built-up stresses finally release.

“We're talking about 20, 30, 40 meters of slip along the offshore fault. We're talking about massive amounts of slip, so it also generates tsunamis as well as strong vibrations.”

Cassidy says the new data will help improve risk models and, ultimately, improve building and bridge codes. The information will also be used by emergency managers.

“Of course, this rift is offshore, so it's important to remember,” he added. “It's about 75 kilometers off the west coast, but it's a fault that continues underneath us, underneath Vancouver Island and underneath the Lower Mainland, about 60 or 70 kilometers deep beneath Vancouver, for example,” he said.

“We know that slip won't last that far, but this is one big area of ​​research. Where exactly does slip occur? This ultimately controls ground shaking and tsunami generation.”

The research doesn't help seismologists pinpoint when a massive earthquake will strike, but Cassidy reminds us that the West Coast is extremely vulnerable.

(Courtesy subduction plate structure and large thrust formation from deep seismic imaging associated with Cascadia earthquake rupture segmentation)

“What we have known for the past 30 years is that we live in a subduction zone where the ocean plate is slowly being pushed under British Columbia, Washington, Oregon and parts of northern California.

“We know that it's an area like Japan, like Alaska, like Chile and Mexico, that have seen very large earthquakes up to magnitude 9.0. The largest earthquakes in the world happen in this type of tectonic environment.

The last earthquake in this range occurred along the west coast in 1700, as deduced by geological information, tsunami records from Japan, and oral traditions from indigenous communities.

“A lot of research has confirmed that we have actually had 19 of these major earthquakes in the last 10,000 years. They're rare events, roughly every 400 or 500 years, sometimes 250 years, sometimes 850 years, so it's a big range,” Cassidy explained.

But with the last major earthquake in the region occurring 324 years ago, seismologists suggest that British Columbia's coastal region could be hit by its next quake at any time.

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