Why the 'big' earthquake threat facing British Columbia may be greater than previously thought

When the “big one” finally happens, will BC be prepared?

A new study has produced the clearest look ever at what's happening beneath the seafloor in a region capable of producing some of the most powerful earthquakes on the planet — and warns the risk is even higher for southern British Columbia and Washington state.

John Cassidy, a seismologist with Natural Resources Canada, said the new data is “really exciting.”

“It gives us some of the best images of what's happening off the coast of Vancouver Island, Washington, Oregon.”

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The southern coast of British Columbia lies in an area known as the Cascadia Subduction Zone, a 1,000-kilometre-long rift system that extends from the coast of Vancouver Island to northern California. In this region, the tectonic plates beneath the ocean floor are slowly sliding beneath the North American plate.

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Scientists have long known that the accumulated pressure generated by this process is eventually released in the form of sudden, powerful earthquakes. But their knowledge of the specific undersea conditions in the Cascadia region has, until now, been “vague,” explained Columbia University marine geophysicist and study co-author Susan Carbutt.

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Researchers spent 41 days in 2021 pulling waterproof cables with 1,200 specialized microphones installed over 5,500 kilometers of seafloor, surveying detailed maps of the geologically active area.

The data showed that not all parts of the fault system were created equal, with some being less at risk from large earthquakes.

In contrast, the portion off the coast of Vancouver Island and the Olympic Peninsula in Washington state “is noticeably flatter and smoother than parts to the south,” Carbot said.

“These conditions, the flat and smooth fault front, are the conditions associated with the most destructive earthquakes.”

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The researchers concluded that the region has the greatest potential for larger earthquakes along the entire Cascadia subduction zone.

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That's because when the plates finally slide, they're likely to slide farther in one shot than elsewhere, Cassidy said.

“In some areas you might see a 20-meter slide in a few minutes,” he said.

What the study doesn't mention is when the next huge earthquake will come.

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Historical records indicate the last earthquake was in January 1700, and Cassidy said scientists have identified 19 magnitude 9.0 earthquakes in the past 10,000 years.

He said such large earthquakes are expected about every 500 years, but evidence has shown some gaps of only about 250 years and some as long as 850 years.

But while the research can't pinpoint when the next earthquake will strike, it can help us understand where it will hit and where the worst impacts will be, Cassidy said.

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“This study provides a lot of detail,” he said.

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“This allows us to estimate ground shaking in a much better way, and the risks of ground-shaking tsunamis.”

The district has already said the information will help it prepare for the future.

“Understanding of these risk factors continues to evolve as research becomes available,” Emergency Management Minister Bowen Ma said.

“Research is available to ensure our standards are consistent to keep people safe.”

Cassidy said the data will be used to update things like British Columbia's building and bridge codes to ensure the safety of the public whenever a major earthquake strikes.

He said it will guide the next wave of research, allowing scientists to better understand the local threat area.

“If you don't know something, you can't prepare for it,” he said.

&Copy 2024 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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