Vancouver Island is located near the dangerous section of the Cascadia fault line

A report released last week advances seismologists' understanding of the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) – and unfortunately shows just how much damage Victoria will suffer if a “big earthquake” occurs.

The new research is a major advance in monitoring fault lines on Earth, especially those where there are few monitoring procedures, such as the CSZ located about 160 km from the island. The CSZ is “extraordinary,” according to Edwin Nissen, a professor of earth sciences at UVic and a lead scientist in earthquake research at the university. Unlike other fault lines, such as the San Andreas Fault, we do not experience frequent earthquakes due to the CSZ, and this makes it difficult to measure the structure of the fault. This new study is groundbreaking — pardon the pun — in clarifying future movements with these flaws.

Scientists have known for some time that the CSZ — which extends from British Columbia to northern California — is at risk of slipping and causing an earthquake of magnitude 9 or higher. They have also determined that we will experience one of these earthquakes in the near future (there is about a 50% chance of it occurring in the next 80 years). It is now clear how this earthquake will appear in different regions.

The new data shows that the texture of the northern section of the CSZ – which extends beneath the South Island and WA – is smoother and flatter than its southern counterpart. These textures are important for understanding the magnitude of a future earthquake. A rougher fabric essentially has more “speed bumps” in the way to slow down the movement of tectonic plates, while smooth parts will slide undisturbed.

This means that as the plates move and slide along this boundary – as they inevitably will – the northern section, where Victoria is located, will experience dramatic sliding leading to a very large earthquake. The southern section, extending from Oregan to Northern California, will witness several moderate earthquakes.

In the southern section, earthquakes last about 30 seconds. Here in the north, a large earthquake can last between two and three minutes.

What is the best scenario? This is a question Nissen and his team have been discussing for some time.

Smaller earthquakes are less damaging, but more likely

Small earthquakes are more likely to occur in our lifetime than a “big one,” which Nissen says has a 15 to 30 percent chance of occurring. But the damage from a larger earthquake would be much more catastrophic.

“From a long time perspective, I think I would prefer to have a lot of smaller earthquakes,” Nissen said. “But, given that the probability of one of these huge earthquakes happening in our lifetime is less than 50/50, it's probably best that we don't do that – the best thing is not to have any earthquakes.”

Another important finding from the report showed that the CSZ is likely to be shallower than previously thought. This means that the plates will not reach deep enough into the ground to melt from the heat, remaining brittle and rigid. This will lead to more pronounced earthquakes, and more damage to urban centers as a result.

How will this affect Victoria?

If a strong earthquake hits British Columbia's coast tomorrow, the damage could be the worst natural disaster in Canadian history.

In addition to its proximity to the CSZ, Victoria is located between two smaller fault lines that run close to the city center.

The Leech River Fault has been known to scientists for some time, but last year a study released by Nissen's team, with lead author Nicholas Harrichhausen, established the existence of a second fault line running beneath Victoria, known as the XEOLXELEK Fault – the W̱SÁNEĆ name for Elk Lake. , under which the error occurs.

Their research found that a magnitude 6-7.6 earthquake occurred about 2,500 to 4,500 years ago along this fault, providing a glimpse into the potential strength of a future earthquake.

A risk assessment of an earthquake from the Leech River Fault – XEOLXELEK would be similar – predicts that nearly a thousand people could die, 7,000 buildings could be damaged, and would cost the province $20 billion.

A massive CSZ attack would cause even more damage, with approximately 3.5 thousand people expected to be killed, 18,000 buildings damaged, and costs of $40 billion.

Brick buildings in downtown Victoria will see the most damage, as most of these buildings were built before building codes were updated with seismic reinforcement in mind. These buildings are fragile, unsupported and likely to collapse.

Nissen says that if an earthquake occurred at night, when the shops and restaurants in these buildings are closed, the losses would not be significant. But if the earthquake occurs during the day, when tourists and locals are out shopping, the impact could be devastating.

An earthquake could destroy the museum, the swimming pool, the parliament, and everyone inside

Nissen also points out buildings that could lead to mass casualties: The Crystal Pool could potentially collapse in an earthquake. On Thursday, council voted on a referendum to determine whether Victoria should borrow $170 million to rebuild it, as staff said it was not safe to continue working.

It is also possible that the Royal BC Museum will be completely destroyed. Nissen says he understands the anger he felt when the province announced the $800 million rebuilding of the museum, amid a housing and cost-of-living crisis. But he fears the consequences of his fall while hundreds of tourists and school groups are inside. The Parliament building will also likely be destroyed, potentially killing several political leaders.

He does not call for the demolition of the city's historic buildings. But as a seismologist, he would “certainly advocate for money to be allocated to the modernization process.”

“This is very expensive. We're talking billions and billions of dollars. I'm a seismologist, of course, and I think it should be the county's first priority,” Nissen says.

He says he realizes there are many urgent concerns, such as homelessness. However, if a strong earthquake occurred, it is estimated that 50% of Victoria's population would become homeless.

“So, you know, if you think about this housing crisis — if you think it's bad now, after a big earthquake, it's going to be absolutely catastrophic,” Nissen says.

“If the earthquake were tomorrow, we'd say we were too slow. It would be a complete disaster.”

There are additional factors that could make the death toll higher

This may all seem like a worst-case scenario, but Nissen asserts that these predictions are more likely to happen.

It also does not take into account the domino effect of damage that can occur after an earthquake.

Fires can break out after an earthquake, with broken gas pipes and sparks from downed electrical wires potentially creating an explosive mixture.

Landslides are possible, especially along the Malahat, cutting off aid to the North Island. Aid from outside the island could also be blocked if the docks at Swartz Bay are damaged or the airport is closed.

During the winter, the ground holds more water leading to fears of infrastructure essentially melting.

“The effect of waterlogging has a big impact on liquefaction — liquefaction is where the ground liquefies as it shakes,” says Nissen, recalling images from Christchurch, New Zealand, in 2011, when a 6.2-magnitude earthquake caused cars to sink into the streets. .

The Christchurch earthquake is an example Nissen said we can look to in Victoria. The 6.2 magnitude earthquake occurred near the city centre, in similar proximity to the Leech River and XEOLXELEK River faults of Victoria. If these bugs are released, we can expect a similar scene to occur here. The proximity of both the Leech River and XEOLXELEK faults to Victoria may also prevent earthquake early warning systems from working.

If a huge CSZ surge occurs, it will be even worse.

What to expect across British Columbia when a mega thrust hits

When a strong earthquake occurs — or the “big one,” as we’ve come to know it — municipalities on British Columbia’s coast will have different concerns to prepare for.

For those in the CRD area, ground shaking will pose the greatest threat. For those who live on the western side of the island, the tsunami waves will cause the most damage.

Tofino is less susceptible to the effects of ground shaking thanks to its smaller, mostly wooden buildings, which have greater flexibility to accommodate movement, unlike the brick buildings of downtown Victoria.

Nissen says Victorians don't need to worry about tsunamis. Waves caused by a strong earthquake are expected to reach only 3-5 meters high near the capital. CRD has developed an interactive map to show which areas will be affected by the tsunami. Since Victoria is already located a few meters above sea level, the cliff on Dallas Beach could be “more than adequate” protection, according to Nissen.

But Tofino is at sea level. The District of Tofino has created a guide for evacuation routes to higher ground, which must be at least 20 meters above sea level on the West Island.

However, time is of the essence: Victorians will have about an hour or two to reach higher ground before the tsunami hits; Those in Tofino will have between 10-20 minutes.

One solution that could save people in Tofino from trying to run against the clock to reach higher ground is a vertical tsunami evacuation tower, which is essentially a reverse bomb shelter, built high above the ground to resist the wall of water. They are common in Japan and have been slowly added to coastal Washington, but are not yet part of Canada's emergency response.

Vancouver could also sustain as much — or more — damage as locations on the island, despite being remote. Nissen says this is due to sediments in the ground beneath Vancouver, which can act like a “jilo,” increasing ground shaking in the area.

None of these situations are ideal, of course, but this understanding helps with emergency planning, which Nissen says is essential. Victorian residents can review the city's emergency planning guides, or join one of our emergency preparedness workshops held throughout the year. You can also revisit Capital Daily's interview with Gregor Krejci on what to do when “the big guy” arrives.

“There will be a lot of panic, so it's important for people to remind themselves and even practice what to do in the event of an earthquake,” Nissen says.

Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://www.capitaldaily.ca/news/vancouver-island-near-more-dangerous-cascadia-fault-line The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos