Study shows 'big' earthquake could be worse than expected for Vancouver Island

Vancouver Island, coastal provinces of British Columbia, Washington, Oregon and northern California could find themselves in the zone of the expected, but less dramatic, “major” earthquake.

According to a study by the Columbia Climate School, all of these areas lie along a 600-mile stretch of the Pacific Ocean floor that has been slowly pushing eastward under the North American continental shelf.

This area is called the Cascadia Subduction Zone, and it is a volatile place where tectonic plates push against each other in a highly compressive and dangerous way.

When the plates close and put enormous pressure on each other. This pressure is eventually released, which has the potential to cause massive earthquakes and subsequent tsunamis.

According to scientists at Columbia University's Climatology School, in the Cascadia subduction zone, historically large earthquakes occur approximately every 500 years, give or take one or two hundred years. The last major earthquake in this area occurred around the year 1700.

This means it could happen at any time, but most likely after 100 to 200 years.

Columbia University scientists say there's no such thing as predicting an earthquake, but those who study seismology are busy running impact scenarios and studying tectonic plates around the world.

Innovations continue to push the field further as well, such as a research vessel towing state-of-the-art instruments along the Cascadia subduction zone to get a comprehensive survey of the ocean floor.

“The models currently used by public agencies rely on a limited set of old, low-quality data dating back to the 1980s,” said Susan Carbut, a marine geophysicist at Columbia University.

She added that the region from which the large planet will come has a more complex geometry than was assumed.

One of the key findings from recent research in Colombia is that the Cascadia subduction zone is not just one continuous shelf, but at least four.

The Columbia study found that each part may not be affected by the movements of other parts.

This means that the last big explosion may not have been a rupture in the entire region, but only in part of it.

The researchers focused on one section in particular that runs from southern Vancouver Island along Washington and ends around the Oregon border.

Evidence collected by Columbia researchers suggests that the conditions of this section make it more likely to rupture along its entire length at once.

This means that it is likely the most dangerous section of the Cascadia subduction zone.

In addition, the study found that the cliff section extends directly under Washington's Olympic Peninsula, which could make shaking from an earthquake catastrophic.

Scientists from the Geological Survey of Canada say the tsunami aspect of what could happen if a rupture occurs is still a work in progress, but it will likely have a significant impact on residents of the southern Vancouver Islands.

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