Some of the coalition's proposed nuclear sites are located near fault lines – is this a problem?

The coalition wants to build nuclear reactors at seven sites across the country, many of which are located on or near known fault lines.

But is this a problem?

There are many nuclear power countries that have more seismic activity than Australia, but this does not rule out a potential complication of the alliance's nuclear aspirations.

Even when fractures in the ground (known as faults) are not identified, earthquakes, landslides, and groundwater issues still pose a risk.

Nationals leader David Littleproud said initial assessments had been carried out at the proposed sites and further assessments would be carried out.

He says that when there are risks, it is possible to design them out.

No place is immune from earthquakes

Earthquakes larger than magnitude 5.0, such as the deadly 1989 Newcastle earthquake, occur somewhere in Australia once every two years on average.

The Earthquake Research Center (SRC) says earthquakes exceeding a magnitude of 7.0 occur somewhere in Australia once every 100 years or so, compared to every few years in active areas such as Japan or California.

The famous San Andreas Fault extends more than 1,000 kilometers along the west coast of the United States. (Flickr: Doc Searles)

These faults can occur anywhere, so no area can be ruled out as “immune” to large earthquakes, although faults make an earthquake in that area more likely, says Adam Pascal, chief scientist at SRC.

But nuclear facilities are designed to withstand seismic risks in the areas where they are built.

French facilities, for example, are designed to withstand earthquakes twice as strong as the 1,000-year event depending on the location, while Japanese facilities have safe automatic shutdown mechanisms if ground movements above a certain level are detected.

With offshore facilities designed to withstand earthquakes of up to magnitude 7.5, GeoScience Australia says “there are only some geological features that would pose a non-engineering hazard meaning the site cannot be considered safe for a nuclear power station.”

“In the Australian context, this includes identifying a fault capable of producing large earthquakes and surface displacements in the immediate vicinity, the potential for liquefaction of the site, the potential for underground cave collapse, and the potential for landslides,” the agency's seismic hazard scientist said. Tamara King said.

Geoscience Australia's map of modern tectonics shows known and potential fault lines (in red), with many near proposed nuclear sites. (Geoscience Australia/ABC News)

The Australian Geosciences Authority's “Neo-Tectonic Features” map shows identified and potential faults near several proposed nuclear sites, including Loy Yang in Victoria, Port Augusta in South Australia, and Caledd, west of Gladstone.

Faults with a proven or suspected history of generating large earthquakes will require detailed study to determine whether they pose a risk to infrastructure in the near future or in the long term, Dr. King said.

“All sites should have detailed site-specific studies to evaluate the feasibility of nuclear power plants,” Dr. King said.

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Detailed work needed to identify risks

But even if no “exclusion criteria” are found, high seismic activity or other risks could cost the government more money to build the stations.

CSIRO estimates each plant would cost at least $8.5 billion to build before cost overruns, and the first plant would likely attract a “first of its kind” premium that would double its price tag to about $17 billion.

These costs will add to the increased engineering required to make the facility safe, said Pascal, of the Earthquake Research Center.

“The engineering that will be used to make this facility earthquake-resistant to the degree it needs to survive a potential earthquake for its entire life may make this decision uneconomical,” Pascal said.

“That may be offset by other infrastructure costs, such as proximity to transportation lines…so I think it will come back to economics.”

Pascal added that there was still a lot unknown about the geology of some parts of Australia, including faults that may not have been found.

“Some areas of the country we know better than others,” he said. “We conducted studies in areas where we obtained more data.”

“For the Victorian site at Loyang, the seismic research center I work with has been monitoring that part of Victoria for the last 50 years, and there's a lot of seismic activity in Gippsland and that area, so we know that very well.

“We have even in recent years seen major earthquakes in the area, so this will definitely be something to take a look at.

“I know some other areas with proposed sites around the country have had studies done, but again, everything needs a site-specific study.”

Geological obstacles go beyond earthquake risks

It's not just earthquakes that planners need to consider.

The nuclear regulatory body ARPANSA has a long list of considerations before approving a nuclear facility: risks of landslides, erosion processes, soil and rock types, subsidence and collapse due to underground features, liquefaction potential, groundwater levels, as well as fracking or the presence of groundwater. broke down.

Blue Mountains Mayor Mark Greenhill said he had “serious concerns” about a potential reactor in nearby Lithgow, and early indications of a risk to groundwater there.

“Our concern is that there may be a groundwater connection to a major waterway that then impacts the wider area. The World Heritage-listed Blue Mountains area is right next door to where this facility is,” Greenhill said.

“So, it is clear that any waste fed into the World Heritage Area is of global importance.

“The reality is that this proposal is very light on detail, and there's no discussion in what's been released about how to avoid those groundwater concerns, and that's a real concern for us. This is a very sensitive ecosystem.”

The alliance will not need to wait until the nationwide nuclear ban is lifted to conduct risk assessments at sites where it wants to build nuclear plants.

Since these evaluations typically take about one to six months to complete, they may not need to wait long to find out if they can actually build nuclear power.

Want to learn more about nuclear energy advertising? Send us your questions and we will try to answer them as part of our coverage.

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Posted 21 hours ago 21 hours ago Thursday, June 20, 2024 at 6:52 pm, updated 19 hours ago 19 hours ago Thursday, June 20, 2024 at 9:17 pm

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