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There are no forecasts of an imminent earthquake hitting Metro Manila

There are no forecasts of an imminent earthquake hitting Metro Manila
There are no forecasts of an imminent earthquake hitting Metro Manila


This is an AI-generated summary, which may contain errors. For context, always refer to the full article.

A mystic claims that this looming quake is not the “big one,” but scientists have repeatedly said it is impossible to accurately predict when and where earthquakes will strike.

CLAIM: Mystic Rudy Baldwin claims that a powerful earthquake, different from what experts call a “big one,” is set to hit Luzon, especially Metro Manila.

Rating: False

Why we checked it: The claim was made by Baldwin's Facebook page, which has 4.3 million followers. The post has received 31,000 reactions, 4,700 comments, and 11,000 shares as of writing.

The post, dated June 20, 2024, reads: “Vision of Manila or Metro Manila. I saw an earthquake coming and it was stronger because houses or other buildings collapsed. It is my power but it is not yet called a great power. But this can be felt by almost all Luzon residents. Don't let panic or nervousness drive you.”

(Seeing Manila or Metro Manila. I saw an earthquake coming and it was strong because some houses or buildings collapsed. It was strong, but not what they call a “big earthquake”. But it was felt by almost all the people of Luzon. No need to panic or get nervous.)

This post was published on the same day that the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) recorded minor tremors in different parts of the country.

Bottom line: At present, it is not yet possible to predict when and where an earthquake will occur.

According to the USGS, scientists do not expect to know how to predict major earthquakes anytime in the foreseeable future. While scientists cannot yet predict earthquakes, they can make predictions that calculate the likelihood of earthquakes occurring in a given area, their likely magnitude, and how frequently they will occur. These predictions are based on decades of information about past earthquake activity.

Also on Rappler

“The Big Earthquake”: Several studies have warned of a possible major earthquake that could hit the Metro Manila area when the West Valley Fault moves. The fault, which has moved four times in the past 1,400 years, moves about every 400 years. For this reason, experts say that the “big event” could happen in our lifetime. (Read: What risks await when the West Valley Fault moves?)

Phivolcs has been organizing awareness campaigns around the “big event,” but has also repeatedly reminded the public that no current technology is capable of providing an accurate prediction. (Explainer: Is it possible to predict earthquakes?)

Earthquake Prediction: Baldwin's claim lacks the elements of earthquake prediction: the date, time, location, and magnitude of the earthquake.

Baldwin's “prediction” only mentions the general location of the supposed earthquake, and does not specify exactly when and how strong the earthquake will be.

Previous Fact Checks: Rappler has fact-checked Baldwin several times for supposed predictions related to natural disasters and disasters:

– Katarina Ruffalo/

Katarina Ruffalo is a trained rap musician. She is pursuing a degree in Political Science with a major in International Relations and Foreign Service at the University of San Carlos, Cebu.




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