Will another earthquake redirect the Ganges?

The course of the Ganges was changed by a powerful earthquake 2,500 years ago, and experts say it could happen again. | Image source: Payal Samanta/DW

A major earthquake 2,500 years ago caused one of the largest rivers on Earth to suddenly change its course, a study has found. The powerful earthquake completely changed the course of the main channel of the Ganges River in what is now densely populated Bangladesh, and completely changed the surrounding landscape.

While it's normal for river channels to move over time, this was a very extreme event. “The river has moved into a completely new area,” said lead author Elizabeth Chamberlain of Wageningen University in the Netherlands.

The study, published in the journal Nature Communications, is the first evidence that a large river delta has been completely moved by an earthquake. The study's authors warn that Bangladesh is vulnerable to large earthquakes, and that the Ganges could shift again if another strong earthquake hits the region. “Although such an event is rare, the risk of such an event occurring could be enormous, especially since Bangladesh hosts one of the most densely populated natural areas on the planet,” Chamberlain said.

How the earthquake redirected the Ganges River

The Ganges begins as a stream in the Himalayas and flows for 2,500 kilometres, eventually uniting with other major rivers, including the Brahmaputra and Meghna. It is a huge delta river system that empties into a wide area of ​​the Bay of Bengal, extending through Bangladesh and India.

Like other rivers, the Ganges changes course periodically due to natural erosion of its banks. This process takes decades, but “the Ganges-Brahmaputra system has moved several times in the past 6,000 years,” said Christoph von Hack, of the University of Salzburg in Austria, who also participated in the study.

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Researchers used satellite images to identify the river's former main channel about 100 kilometers south of the Bangladeshi capital, Dhaka. The team was exploring the area when they found signs of historic earthquakes — such as vertical dikes of light-colored sand cutting through horizontal layers of dark clay. Chemical analysis of the sand and clay showed that several volcanic eruptions occurred at the same time, about 2,500 years ago. The explosions were estimated at 7 to 8 magnitude – roughly the same magnitude as the earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria in 2023.

The vast Ganga-Brahmaputra river system lies near an active plate boundary and is a tectonically active region. “This proximity leads to frequent major earthquakes,” said Till Hahnboth, an geoscientist at Coastal Carolina University in the United States. Honeybutt was not part of the study.

Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable to catastrophic earthquake events due to its proximity to seismic zones. While the area is not currently believed to be at risk, researchers said it was possible the quake could be strong enough to change the course of the Ganges within the next 100 to 1,000 years.

Rerouting Ganges would be 'catastrophic for region'

The researchers said their study showed that it was entirely possible for delta rivers to change their course dramatically if they were hit by high-magnitude earthquakes. “It was a really extreme event — actually, there were two extreme events. A magnitude 7 to 8 earthquake is already a really intense earthquake, but it caused a redirection,” they said. [known as avulsion] “From the main channel of the Ganges,” von Hajke said.

Von Haacke said a new event of the same size would be catastrophic for the region because it would hit a “highly populated area.” The penetration and transport of rivers is not only dependent on earthquakes, but can also be caused by extreme weather, Hanebut said. “Flash river floods can be caused by major monsoon or cyclone flooding, or a major river dam failure,” Hanebut said, adding that while they can be caused by natural events, they are also “man-made to a certain extent.” big”.

Can earthquakes be predicted?

Researchers need to know more about the potential for large-scale river capsize events in the future, especially those caused by earthquakes, von Hagke said. The difficult part, he said, is that scientists can't predict when earthquakes will occur, or how large they will be when they do occur. “For different earthquake scenarios, one can estimate changes in the landscape and hence potential impacts on rivers and water bodies. But we cannot pinpoint the timing of an event that only occurs every 100 to a few thousand years,” von Hagke said.

Read also | With Jammu's sacred Tawi River in danger of extinction, all is not calm on the waterfront

However, Chamberlain said knowing that earthquakes can completely change the course of rivers, and the Ganges in Bangladesh in particular, means researchers can now begin to understand and predict how seismic events occur. “We hope this knowledge will be useful in planning and mitigating risks before a recent event occurs,” she said.

The Ganges is not the only river facing earthquake-related risks. Other waters include the Yellow River in China, the Irrawaddy River in Myanmar, the Klamath, San Joaquin, and Santa Clara rivers on the West Coast of the United States, and the Jordan River, which straddles the borders of Syria, Jordan, the Palestinian West Bank, and Israel.

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