The National Rally brings a political earthquake to France

There is one big winner in this evening's opinion polls in the first round of the French legislative elections – and several big losers. Polls conducted by Elabe for BFMTV confirm the last polls before the votes are cast – and the winner (so far) is the National Rally (National Rally).

A third of voters voted for the Rally National candidate or its allies, and if today’s results are confirmed in the second round, this means that the Rally National has a strong chance of forming a working government from July 7 on the basis of a projected 260-310 seats (absolute majority: 289). However, the seat projections come with a huge caveat. Given one of the highest turnouts in nearly fifty years, there are many constituencies where three candidates (triangles) are likely to run in the second round (which has a maximum of 12.5 percent of eligible voters) and there will be a full-scale campaign to block the Rally National candidate across the rest of the political spectrum.

But the performance of the New Popular Front can also be considered a good result with 28 percent (115-145 seats), well ahead of President Macron's group with 22 percent (90-120 seats) and the remaining Republican Party with 10.5 percent. It is likely to be an enormously vocal group in the National Assembly and beyond.

The biggest loser is of course Emmanuel Macron. Not only because he lost his reckless bet to dissolve the party, but because he lost his entire political career with it. He reached the presidency in 2017 alone, and he will leave it alone. The party he had so hastily and brilliantly assembled exploded. Arrogance and contempt for his fellow citizens from the bottom up have finally gotten their comeuppance. When he claimed in 2017 to rid France of the reasons to vote for the “far-right,” he ended up strengthening them and the causes of the far-left. His will be the negative political legacy of the likes of arrogant President Marshal McMahon who was forced to remain silent in his attempt to demonstrate.

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The next big loser is the stable moderation that General de Gaulle thought he had successfully instilled in the Fifth Republic: the orderly alternation between the two main political groups of right and left. Emmanuel Macron has dynamited this. The result, when the dust settles, will be two fiercely confrontational ideological blocs, their struggles taking place inside and outside parliament. The tremors of today’s explosion—political, social, economic, financial, and cultural—will be felt for years to come. France is regressing to the old reactionary state of revolution and reaction from which it thought it had emerged.

The other loser is the European Union. For the first time since the Treaty of Rome, with the occasional exception of de Gaulle, European institutions will face an openly Euroskeptic French government. When Brussels tries to manipulate its levers of control, especially finances, the new French government – ​​the EU’s second-largest economy and a net contributor to the budget – is unlikely to take it lying down. Contrary to popular opinion, the National Front has been preparing for several years to form a government of like-minded EU civil servants, judges, lawyers, and civil servants (the MEP Fabrice Leggeri is the former head of Frontex) in the official opposition. A Bardella government will quickly forge alliances with like-minded member states – from Italy to the Netherlands to Hungary – that will challenge the EU’s arrogance, upset Brussels’s consensual harmony, and make it look like a divided France.

Next week will bring an earthquake in French politics that the history of the Fifth Republic has never witnessed.

Another loser is France’s standing in the world. General de Gaulle succeeded, against all odds, in restoring France’s international standing after the Second World War. Under President Macron, France’s image in Africa, Europe and the Far East has been tarnished by its diplomatic inconsistency and ineffectiveness. But this image also rested on more philosophical grounds: France was the bastion of the Enlightenment and the home of human rights. Perhaps unfairly, the National Front government will be seen in the Global South and parts of the developed world as marking the end of that old idea of ​​France, which originally claimed to be a model of civilisation.

Finally, the next Labor government will also be the loser. The latest explanation given by Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy in Foreign Affairs – the “progressive realism argument” – places great emphasis on strengthening external and security ties with France through the Lancaster House Agreements as an entry point into closer relations with Brussels. This strategy saw the Euro-loving Macron as the gatekeeper. This no longer seems credible in the face of the Republican Union Party government, which is skeptical of the euro and NATO. The Labor Party will have to reconsider its strategy towards the European Union.

Next week will witness an earthquake in French politics that is unprecedented in the history of the Fifth Republic.

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