Anatomy of an Earthquake: The 2024 Election Delivers a Brutal Verdict | 2024 General Election

Sir Robert Buckland was a gentleman and polite to the end in his dealings with the Labour MP who sat in his seat in South Swindon, and he could no longer contain his anger.

He is tired of political “maneuvers” and those colleagues in his party who say things they “know are not true.”

Just after midnight, Buckland, the former justice minister, became the first Conservative MP to lose his seat in Labour's landslide election victory – and he was spitting.

He said former home secretary Suella Braverman had shown “astonishing lack of discipline” in criticising Rishi Sunak on the eve of the election.

The party will fall into the abyss if it promotes such figures to its leadership.

Don't those now fighting over Sunak's job see that it's like “bald men arguing over a comb”?

It was the first cry of frustration from a group of Conservative Party leaders who have been overwhelmed by the collapse of the Conservative vote across the country.

Labour was expected to do better than the 145-seat majority enjoyed by Clement Attlee in 1945 or the 144 seats that secured a second term for the Conservatives under Margaret Thatcher in 1983.

It was devastating – as Buckland admitted, an “electoral disaster” – but Labour officers were under strict orders to suppress their understandable joy in the early hours of the morning.

Angela Rayner, who seemed destined to become deputy prime minister, did not smile when asked to respond to the polls' predictions that Labour would win a majority of 170 votes.

“We understand the burden that is on our shoulders… and I would say to the people of this country, ‘I will always put you first, and I will fight hard every day to turn things around,’” she said.

Labour MP Bridget Phillipson and supporters celebrate in Houghton, Sunderland South. Photo: Ian Forsyth/Getty Images

Bridget Phillipson, the shadow education secretary, who was the first to take her seat in Houghton and Sunderland South, was careful in her choice of words.

“The British people have spoken tonight, and if tonight’s poll is any guide to the results across our country – as it so often is – then after 14 years the British people have chosen change,” May said. “They have chosen Labour and they have chosen Keir Starmer’s leadership. Today our country, with its proud history, has chosen a brighter future.”

But Peter Mandelson, one of the main architects of Blair’s historic victory almost three decades ago, was less circumspect. “Planet Earth has now been hit by an electoral meteorite,” he said.

The exit poll, which had not been significantly wrong since 1992, when it incorrectly indicated a hung parliament rather than a majority for John Major, suggested Labour had won an estimated 410 seats in the 650-seat parliament, just nine short of the 179-seat majority it won in 1997.

Watching television at his constituency home in Richmond, North Yorkshire, Rishi Sunak learned that the Conservatives looked set to win just 131 seats, making it the party's worst electoral performance since 1832.

Sunak tweeted: “To the hundreds of Conservative candidates, the thousands of volunteers and the millions of voters: thank you for your hard work, thank you for your support, thank you for your vote.”

Votes are counted in Northallerton, where Rishi Sunak faces a battle to retain his seat. REUTERS/Darren Staples

As the hours passed, any doubts about the accuracy of the polls were dispelled. Conservative MP Steve Baker, a staunch Brexiteer, was told he had only a 1% chance of keeping his Wycombe seat. “I’ll win in a few hours and a lot of people watching will be cheering,” he admitted.

A host of other senior Conservatives, including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, were also said to be at risk of a historic election defeat.

But what was more painful was that the UK Reform Party, led by Nigel Farage, appeared to have made an extraordinary breakthrough, gaining what the party’s deputy leader, Benhabib, described as a “bridgehead” in parliament, winning up to 13 seats.

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Farage appeared set to win a seat in Clacton at the eighth time of asking, as did Richard Teece, the Reform Party’s leader, in Boston and Skegness. “This is a political earthquake,” Habib said.

Initially, Professor Sir John Curtice, the psychologist who led the team that produced the poll, suggested that his team was underconfident in the seat numbers won by Reform in the UK and the SNP in Scotland, which was said to be on course for just 10 seats, damaging its claims to a “mandate for independence”.

But there were signs within the early results that Reform had taken votes from both Labour and the Conservatives, coming second in a range of seats, including Blyth and Ashington where it took 10,857 votes, while Labour took 20,030 and the Conservatives came third with 6,121 votes.

“This is absolutely huge,” Farage said, noting that two results in the north-east of England had put Reform on 30 percent of the vote. “It's almost unbelievable,” he added.

Celebrations at a “Stop the Tories” election rally in London. REUTERS/Susan Plunkett

The rise of the UK reform movement and low voter turnout will be a cause for concern for those at the centre of British politics in the coming years, but Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey could not contain his joy as polls suggested he would lead a party with 61 seats, down from the 11 it won in 2019.

He said: “The Liberal Democrats are on course for their best result in a century, thanks to our positive campaign focused on health and care. I am humbled by the millions of people who supported us to drive the Tories out of power and deliver the change our country needs.”

Plaid Cymru in Wales was expected to win four seats, while the Green Party was on course to win two, after winning one in 2019.

For the Conservatives, former leader William Hague, a close friend of Sunak’s who inherited his constituency seat, struggled to find anything encouraging, saying the party would “almost be able” to mount an effective opposition.

“The solution is to rebuild for the future,” he said. “The Conservative Party at its peak – as it has been for over 200 years – is the party that usually governs the country because it is able to control the political centre, people from all walks of life, people from all ages, and it will have to be able to do that. It will take a long time for it to be able to do that, but it will have to be able to do that.”

'Massacre': Ruth Davidson on Sky News. Photo: Sky News

Across the country, the Conservative vote appeared to have collapsed. It was down 24% in the north of England, where Boris Johnson had a big run in 2019, down 29% in the Midlands, down 23% in the south and down 16% in London.

In addition to Hunt, who would be the first finance minister ever to lose his seat, polls suggested that the other candidates at risk were Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, and Johnny Mercer, the veterans’ secretary. The seats of transport secretary Mark Harper, work and pensions secretary Mel Stride and environment secretary Steve Barclay were “very close”.

“You can't fake it, this is a massacre,” said former Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson.

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