France braces for potential political earthquake: Far-right surges in elections

Paris-

For decades, there has been a strong political taboo in France against a far-right party coming to power. Now, just weeks before the Summer Olympics in Paris, the populist National Rally is making its most aggressive attempt to do so.

In the second and final round of voting on Sunday, the anti-immigration France First party is expected to become the largest in parliament — although the latest forecasts suggest it may fall short of the absolute majority that would allow it to form a government.

Whether or not opponents succeed in banding together to block their most ambitious goals, the National Rally is likely to be in a position to harass centrist President Emmanuel Macron, who took office in 2017 and still has three years left in his current term.

“This means that France is entering a crisis,” said Gérard Araud, a former French ambassador to the United States, after the far-right party won first place in the first round of voting on June 30. Speaking on an Atlantic Council podcast, Araud described the situation as “an unmitigated disaster” for Macron.

After the National Rally’s early victory, other parties, including Macron’s centrists, spent the week working feverishly to prevent it from achieving an absolute majority, a result that would force Macron to install its 28-year-old leader, Jordan Bardella, as prime minister.

Even if the far right fails to reach this threshold, it could still form a governing coalition, or simply use its newfound influence to thwart the agenda of Macron, whose party has so far retained the largest number of seats.

Here's some background on how France got to this chaotic political moment.

Flags adorn a statue above the Place de la Republique in Paris on Wednesday.

(Louise Delmotte/Associated Press)

Who is up for voting and what is at stake?

The parties are competing for 577 seats in the National Assembly, the lower and most powerful chamber of parliament. The National Rally hopes to win at least 289 seats, which would allow it to form a government without the need for coalition partners.

The three main political blocs competing are the National Rally; a coalition called the New Popular Front, which brings together centre-left and far-left forces, as well as environmentalists; and Macron’s centrist Alliance. They came in first, second and third, respectively, in the first round of voting on June 30.

In the next round, various complexities in the French electoral system make predictions difficult. Because lawmakers are elected on a constituency basis, the outcome does not necessarily reflect the overall levels of national support for a particular party.

Why is this vote happening?

French President Emmanuel Macron called for these elections, but it seems that this was a very bad bet.

(Aurelien Morisard/Associated Press)

Macron, whose presidency runs until 2027, did not need to call a parliamentary vote. But three weeks ago, after the National Rally beat his Ennahda party by a 2-1 margin in June’s European Parliament elections—a stinging but essentially symbolic rebuke—he said he wanted “clarity” about voters’ wishes, and called for early elections.

Analysts said Macron appeared to be betting, as he has in the past, that French voters would back away from the National Rally's rule, and that the European election result, which does not directly affect national governance, was essentially a protest vote.

The president’s decision, made hours after the EU vote, took France by surprise. According to French news reports, only a handful of advisers were aware of the move before Macron’s announcement. This inner circle did not include his prime minister, Gabriel Attal.

What is the National Assembly?

It is a revamped version of the former National Front, whose founder, Jean-Marie Le Pen, was a notorious racist who sought to downplay the Holocaust. Marine Le Pen, the founder’s daughter, has worked hard to detoxify her brand, focusing on core issues, distancing herself from some of the party’s more extreme positions and even expelling her father in 2015. With her blessing, Bardella will replace her as party leader in 2022, though she is expected to run as a presidential candidate when Macron’s term ends in 2027.

France’s aversion to the far right has deep historical roots, dating back to the Nazi-collaborating Vichy regime during World War II, which handed over many of the country’s Jews to Nazi death. Many here still consider the Vichy regime a lasting stain on the nation’s honor.

What positions does the National Rally support?

The bill promises to cut immigration, increase police powers and give French-born citizens preferential treatment over dual and foreign nationals, among other measures that critics say could infringe on civil liberties.

In the past, the party has strongly rejected the European Union, a stance it has since softened, but it still wants to work from within to weaken the powers of the 27-nation bloc.

Marine Le Pen also has a long history of sympathy for Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the Kremlin has welcomed her efforts to break free from what it calls the dominance of Washington and Brussels, the seat of the European Union.

Why did people turn against President Macron?

When he won the election seven years ago, at the age of 39, Macron was the youngest head of state ever elected in the country’s history, a proud technocrat who set out to deepen integration with the European Union and make France a more attractive business climate. But he also gained a reputation for arrogance and ignoring the concerns of ordinary voters, such as the cost of living and stagnant incomes, especially in deprived rural areas. His move to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 was deeply unpopular, sparking mass protests.

How could the victory of the National Rally affect the war in Ukraine?

Significantly and negatively. Macron has been a strong supporter of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government as Ukraine tries to fend off a full-scale Russian invasion. The French leader has not ruled out sending French troops to Ukraine to help train its military; the National Rally would oppose that. Bardella has also said he would block France from supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles that could hit targets inside Russia.

What does the far-right's victory in France mean for the United States?

In France, the presidency holds the most influence and power over foreign affairs and national security, but a far-right prime minister would likely seek to erode that dominance. Macron’s tenure has largely overlapped with the presidency of Donald Trump, with whom the French leader has sought to build a workable relationship, though Trump’s successor, President Biden, has been a more natural ally. Trump’s domestic supporters have cheered the prospect of a far-right surge that would leave Macron vulnerable.

How are competitors trying to disrupt the National Assembly?

In the past, the main parties have banded together to form a firewall against the far right, and now they are trying to do so again. In the run-up to the second round, opponents of the National Rally engaged in “tactical voting,” with candidates in some constituencies abandoning the race to help boost non-far-right candidates. By midweek, more than 220 left- and center-left candidates had withdrawn from the second round.

This strategy could lead to a “hung parliament,” where no bloc has a clear majority, which could lead to a prolonged period of political instability. A new general election could not be held for at least a year.

As the field narrowed, opponents began scouring the social media accounts and old photos of National Rally rivals, seeking to erode their support base or force them out of the race. One candidate withdrew from the local race after a photo emerged of her wearing a World War II-era hat similar to those worn by Nazi officers.

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