Le Pen's rise shows extent of polarization

Protesters take part in a demonstration against the far right following the announcement of the results of the first round of the French parliamentary elections at the Place de la République in Paris on June 30, 2024.

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“We are afraid of what might happen,” Amal, 34, told CNBC ahead of the final round of voting in France's early elections this week.

All sectors of French society are closely watching the election to see whether the anti-immigration National Rally party will build on its initial victory in the first round of voting, or whether centrist and left-wing parties will be able to thwart the party's chances of entering government.

“It is a very tense period. This is the first time that the far right has won in the first round. [the first round of the ballot]“It’s a very big deal,” added Amal, a psychotherapist who said she would vote for the left-wing New Popular Front.

“We are very concerned and trying to get everyone to vote, trying to tell people who don’t vote to go vote, trying to convince people who vote for the far right that it’s not a good answer.” [to France’s problems]”.”

France's far-right National Front party has rejected the label “extremist,” saying it stands for French values, culture and citizens at a time when many are fed up with the French political establishment led by President Emmanuel Macron since 2017.

But opponents and critics of the National Movement warn that France is on the brink of political disaster if the anti-immigration, nationalist and eurosceptic party wins a majority in the snap election called by Macron after his party lost heavily to the far right in European Parliament elections in June. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said French voters now had a “moral duty” to halt the party’s advance.

For young, left-leaning voters like Amal, the National Rally's surge in the polls, and the fact that it won the most votes in the first round of elections last weekend, are worrying developments that make them fear for social cohesion in France.

“I am worried about the future of the country,” said Amal, who asked not to be identified by her first name due to the sensitivity of the situation. “I think the situation is getting worse. It will be like a civil war. I hope it doesn’t come to that, but people will no longer mix and will be afraid of each other. This is very scary.”

The early election has sharply highlighted the country's political polarization, with opinion polls ahead of the final round of voting on Sunday indicating a deeply divided nation.

The first round of the election resulted in the victory of the far-right National Front party with 33% of the vote, while the left-wing New Popular Front party won 28%, and the coalition of parties supporting Macron (Rally, or Together) won 20% of the vote.

Left-wing supporters react as the results of the first round of the French parliamentary elections are announced in Nantes, western France, on June 30, 2024.

Sebastien Salom-Gomis | AFP | Getty Images

Since the results of the first round of elections were announced, the centre-right and left-wing parties have done their utmost to prevent the National Rally from advancing in the second round, with the aim of preventing the party from obtaining a parliamentary majority at any cost. As part of the so-called “Republican Front”, the centre-right and left-wing parties have withdrawn from several electoral districts where one of their candidates was better positioned to defeat the National Rally.

By offering voters a clearer choice and fewer options, the anti-far-right Front hopes voters will vote for the non-National Rally candidate. It remains to be seen whether this plan will work, and analysts suggest that French voters may not welcome being told how or who to vote for.

Elections are a “mess”

The final result on Sunday evening — the result of an early election that Macron did not need to call — will show how difficult it will be to reach consensus in national politics and government in the future.

The nation’s reaction to the result is also uncertain. France is no stranger to civil unrest, with the “yellow vest” anti-government movement spreading in recent years and street protests since the first round of voting on June 30.

The French interior ministry appears to be bracing for more trouble after Sunday’s election, reportedly readying to deploy around 30,000 officers across France on Sunday night amid fears of violence after polls close. Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin is said to have said 5,000 police officers will be on duty in Paris and its surroundings “to ensure that the extreme right and extreme left do not take advantage of the situation to cause chaos.”

French police have been accused of sometimes being too harsh on protesters during previous periods of unrest, firing water cannons and tear gas at “yellow vest” demonstrators in 2019.

Tensions rise as demonstrators gather at Place de la République to protest against the growing right-wing movement after the National Rally won the first round of early general elections in Paris, France on June 30, 2024.

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“The French elections are a mess,” a member of the gendarmerie, the French military force responsible for law enforcement and public order, told CNBC, adding that “the public division has rarely been so stark in France.”

“People's opinions are becoming increasingly divided, and this is felt in daily life,” the gendarme, who asked not to be identified because of the nature of his job, told CNBC.

The officer, a father of three in his 40s and a right-wing voter, said the polarization in French society was “very worrying, but unfortunately normal with the 'diversity' of our society.”

“More and more people with different values ​​and education are forced to live together, and it's clear that this is not working,” said the officer, who works in Bordeaux in southwestern France.

“I am worried about the future of the country, because we are very generous to people who are not willing to integrate and contribute to our society, and this cannot continue.”

The police officer said he expected civil unrest to break out after the vote regardless of which party got the most votes.

“There will be civil unrest no matter who is elected, this is France and the people say what they think.”

Civil unrest is possible.

Political experts agree that the current tense atmosphere in French politics and the hostility between the main electoral bodies are the basic elements for further civil unrest.

“We have here all the recipe for a highly polarized political landscape, and this of course applies to civil society as a whole,” Philippe Marlier, professor of French and European politics at University College London, told CNBC.

“If you have only 33-34% of people voting for the far right, that means the rest are wary of it, or completely opposed to it, so that will be reflected at every level of politics – institutional politics, party politics, the National Assembly, but also in society. You will have a very polarised society where young people, ethnic minorities, women, and especially feminists, will be very concerned,” he said.

Marlier did not rule out the possibility of street violence if a far-right party were elected to power. “We are not there yet. But if some groups pursue policies that are too unpopular, too hostile, too hostile, there will be widespread demonstrations that will lead to unrest in the streets,” he said.

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Like other far-right parties in Europe, the National Rally has tapped into voters’ concerns about crime, immigration, national identity and economic insecurity. The National Rally’s 28-year-old leader, Jordan Bardella, has told voters he will “restore order,” curb immigration and tackle delinquency, but he and party leader Marine Le Pen have backed away from some of their toughest promises and rhetoric—retreating from NATO, for example, and softening the party’s traditionally pro-Russian stance.

Bardella said he would still support sending weapons to Ukraine but not deploying ground troops, which Macron has indicated is a possibility.

Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella at the closing rally ahead of the European Parliament elections on 9 June, held at Le Dôme de Paris – Palais des Sports, on 2 June 2024.

Noor Photo | Noor Photo | Getty Images

It is uncertain how many policies might be implemented even if the party succeeds in reaching government. The Republican Front also appears confident ahead of the second round of voting that its strategy to damage the National Rally’s share of the vote is working.

On July 3, an Ifop poll suggested that voters would lean toward a pro-Macron centrist or left-wing candidate rather than the National Rally candidate if that was the choice on Sunday’s ballot. But if the choice was between a far-left and far-right candidate, the picture was more nuanced, showing a split vote.

Analysts expect the French National Party's chances of achieving an absolute majority (289 seats) in the 577-seat National Assembly to decline, but it is still likely to collect the largest number of votes, creating a scenario of a hung parliament, a headache for Macron and uncertainty about the political and economic outlook in France.

“The political landscape is in turmoil and it can’t function well anymore, at least not by the old rules,” Ipsos analyst Matthew Duerte told CNBC on Thursday.

“We are in a situation so far removed from our political traditions and customs that it is very difficult for all stakeholders to adapt to this new situation.”

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