Will we see more earthquakes due to climate change?

Earthquakes are one of the most mysterious and terrifying natural disasters. Although we have some idea of ​​when major earthquakes will occur, others can strike suddenly, destroying cities and creating secondary disasters like fires, landslides, and tsunamis. Climate change is causing other natural disasters, like wildfires and hurricanes, to increase. Could this also make earthquakes more common?

The largest and most dangerous type of earthquake is a tectonic earthquake. These earthquakes are caused by the movement of tectonic plates, which are massive slabs of rock that make up the Earth's crust and upper mantle. Heat from deep within the planet causes these plates to move at a rate of about half an inch (1.5 centimeters) per year, causing them to rub against each other. Pressure builds in these areas until it reaches a breaking point where the plates suddenly shift, releasing energy that causes earthquakes.

Unlike other disasters, it is almost impossible to predict when earthquakes will occur, making planned evacuations almost impossible.

Unfortunately, climate change could be making earthquakes more frequent and more intense, experts told Live Science. As global warming occurs, glaciers are melting at an increasing rate. When melting glaciers flow from the land into the sea, the land beneath them rises, said John Cassidy, a seismologist at the Geological Survey of Canada and the University of Victoria.

It's the same principle that happens when a kid pushes a pool float under the surface and then lets go: The float stays down as long as there's pressure from above, but as soon as that pressure is released, it rises back up. When that happens, the pressure differences can cause previously dormant faults to suddenly burst, triggering earthquakes, Cassidy told Live Science.

Related: What is the size of the largest possible earthquake?

A glacier in Switzerland melts and turns into a lake. The melting ice could cause more earthquakes in the coming years. (Image credit: Andrea Toffaletti / 500px via Getty Images)

Even more worrying than earthquakes caused by melting ice are those that might be triggered by rising sea levels. As sea levels rise, the underwater pressure on the seafloor also increases, says Marco Bonhoff, a geophysicist at the Helmholtz Centre in Potsdam and the Free University of Berlin in Germany. As the water pressure rises, so will the stress on fault lines near the coast.

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“There are many earthquakes that are late in their seismic cycle, including those expected to occur near San Francisco and Los Angeles in the next few decades,” Bonhoff told Live Science. “That means a small increase in stress is enough to speed up the seismic clock. In many places, it may be enough to trigger earthquakes.”

Even if we stopped using greenhouse gases now, it would take up to a thousand years for sea level rise to stop, Bonhoff added. During that time, he predicts, the gaps between major coastal earthquakes will become shorter.

Because it could take centuries to prove that prediction, Bonhoff’s research relies mostly on existing models. For example, scientists have modeled the rise and fall of the water level in the Salton Sea, an inland body of water about 80 miles (130 kilometers) northeast of San Diego, over the past 1,000 years, and found that when the lake fills, more earthquakes occur along the nearby San Andreas Fault.

But Cassidy isn’t sure whether rising sea levels will cause a shift in pressure big enough to make these giant earthquakes happen faster, at least in our lifetimes. Climate change will make them more dangerous when they do happen, he says. Tsunamis from earthquakes will reach farther inland as sea levels rise. Warmer oceans will bring more rainfall, which will increase the risk of landslides triggered by earthquakes. Rainfall will also make earthquake vibrations more pronounced, because any shaking in wet ground is much more amplified than any shaking in dry ground. But again, we won’t know exactly what will happen until it happens, and according to Cassidy, there’s still a lot to discover.

“It's an important topic, and I'm sure we'll see a lot more information about it in the coming months and years,” he said. “But regardless of what we find out, it's not good news.”

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