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Earthquakes suggest tectonic clock is ticking in Kashmir – Kashmir Observer
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The US Geological Survey reported that a 4.5 magnitude earthquake occurred at a depth of about 14 km and caused shaking in Baramulla and nearby areas of Kashmir. The National Centre for Seismology, under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, India, also reported the same event at a depth of 10 km. Both sources confirm that the earthquake occurred at a shallow depth, and it seems plausible that the earthquake may have ruptured local active faults. This is consistent with our previous work on the causes of earthquakes in the region and reaffirms the potential seismic hazards associated with seismic sources beneath Kashmir. It is another wake-up call for us to prepare the ground for a major earthquake that could cause devastation in Kashmir due to the widespread unscientific urbanization practices in the built environment, which is vulnerable to damage during earthquakes.
The geological and tectonic history of Kashmir suggests a complex relationship with earthquakes. This means that earthquakes have sculpted the landscape and made Kashmir one of the reflections of heaven on earth. However, with beauty comes the beast; for Kashmir, the beast is the risk of earthquakes, floods and landslides. The tectonic structure suggests that major earthquakes in the region can occur at any time.
Predicting the exact timing of an earthquake is impossible because available knowledge and technological advances do not allow it. It is a global concern as earthquake prediction remains impossible, even for the most technologically advanced and earthquake-prone countries such as Japan, the United States, New Zealand, etc.
All these countries have long been campaigning to make life safe from earthquakes and their associated risks by following strict building codes that have reduced casualties and damage during major earthquakes, something we have observed over decades of scientific and engineering progress. Unfortunately, the campaign has not yet begun in Kashmir. The delaying tactics are extremely dangerous and paint a bleak picture of the region during an impending earthquake of magnitude 7 or greater.
I have been writing articles on earthquake hazards for over a decade, as have many other scholars and researchers, most of them published in the Kashmir Observer, which has played a pioneering role in disseminating scientific information vital to the safety and security of our societies from hazards, especially earthquakes and floods. However, whenever I visit India, I fail to understand why its buildings do not follow standard earthquake safety procedures and practices that would save lives during earthquakes. I have asked myself this question and discussed it with many scholars, students and people in Kashmir, which has led me to conclude that changes are difficult but not impossible. The mindset is not ready to leap towards new building practices where some of the previous social norms may have to be abandoned forever. For example, including hiring well-trained architects and engineers from some of the best institutions in the world to replace the existing architects and engineers, who have been trained locally, most of whom still need formal training in universities, etc. For example, most of the residential buildings I saw in Anantnag, where I come from, were designed and built by local architects and other engineers, who have not yet received training in a formal engineering institution. This is a huge problem and the current norm needs to be replaced by professional engineering design and construction.
The government should adopt a resolution to carefully monitor the efficiency of engineering design and construction patterns to allow systematic replacement measures for the common good. The 6th World Congress on Disaster Management (WCDM) in Dehradun in 2023 also recognized the need to change the current practices for the better. The global scientific community and people from diverse backgrounds emphasized the need to re-evaluate the current standards in preparation for a better future to effectively combat the risks posed by earthquakes, floods and other hazards.
Our regions are prone to various hazards, and earthquakes are the most dangerous because of their unpredictable nature, giving us sleepless nights. Therefore, it is good for our communities to work on being prepared and making our surroundings a place of peace. We can do this; affordable for many and feasible for others with the help of government and private agencies. We must start navigating the path of hazard preparedness and disaster resilience in the built environment for the benefit of our regions, and to accomplish this enormous task, the government must play a crucial role by monitoring, facilitating and rebuilding the infrastructure of the entire country, especially the most vulnerable regions like Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh.
The views expressed in the article are the author's personal views and do not necessarily represent the editorial position of The Kashmir Observer.
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