Earthquakes caused by natural factors – poor prediction, but there is hope in animals

Details By Professor Victoria Sutton July 28, 2024

Guest Opinion. Even without scientific tracking data, Oklahomans will tell you that earthquakes have increased dramatically over the past several years. Why? Can the USGS predict these earthquakes?

The Earth is covered by about 15 tectonic plates that slide across the surface. (Some people liken the Earth's crust to the skin of an orange in terms of proportion and relative density.) Earthquakes are usually caused by sudden movements of these plates. This explains why many earthquakes occur along fault lines along the west coast of the Americas.

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But there are earthquakes that occur as secondary seismic events of other earthquakes, or are “induced” or, as I call them, “inspired.” The U.S. Geological Survey (the agency that leads earthquake research) has been tracking such induced or inspired earthquakes, and there is a clear increase in earthquakes in Oklahoma.

hydraulic fracturing

The first question that might come to mind is whether this increase in earthquakes is due to the relatively recent use of fracking to extract more oil that would otherwise not have been extracted. It is reasonable to assume that fracking rocks 3 to 4 kilometers below the surface could generate seismic waves that lead to an earthquake.

The USGS has concluded that the problem is not hydraulic fracturing, but deep disposal of wastewater from oil and gas drilling. Deep injection of wastewater, which is deposited below the water table to avoid contamination, accounts for about 90 percent of underground injection, compared with about 10 percent for hydraulic fracturing.

These underground injection wells are subject to strict regulations.

However, the USGS found that the largest fracking-induced earthquake in Oklahoma was a magnitude 3.6 quake in 2019. Until this week, the largest known earthquake in Texas was a magnitude 4.0 quake in 2019. This week, Texas experienced magnitude 4.8 and 4.9 earthquakes in the heart of the Permian Basin, so it’s not clear whether they were caused by the recent start of fracking activity or the injection of wastewater from ongoing oil and gas operations.

damage to private property

Although oil and gas companies may own mineral rights, they are restricted from harming the surface rights of the surface rights owner. Almost all mineral rights in Texas have been sold to someone other than the surface owner, so this is an evolving area of ​​law.

Those of you who work in law may remember Pennsylvania Coal Co. v. Mahon Co., 260 U.S. 393 (1922), a case in which a Pennsylvania coal company sold roof rights to landowners for home construction, waiving their right to claim any damages from coal mining, at a lower price. When roofs began to collapse and the homes with them, the state legislature stepped in with a law prohibiting roof damage. However, Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes of the United States Supreme Court found that the law was a constitutional taking and that the coal company was entitled to just compensation. The fact that it sold the roof rights at a lower cost with a disclaimer of liability for any damage meant that the homeowners were not entitled to more than they had purchased, and thus had to live with the loss of their homes. Unless the roof rights to the homes were sold with a disclaimer of liability for damages from hydraulic fracturing or underground injection, oil and gas companies would be liable for damages to the roof rights to the homes.

The USGS is a leader in detecting earthquakes, but it readily admits that it cannot predict them before they happen.

The US Geological Survey said that

No USGS [United States Geological Survey] No other scientist has ever predicted a major earthquake. We don't know how it will happen, and we don't expect to know how it will happen anytime in the foreseeable future.

With earthquakes increasing 300% in Oklahoma, it would be wise to find some way to predict them.

Moreover, earthquakes have become more deadly, partly due to increased housing and population density. In fact, the response to earthquakes is relatively recent (fifty to sixty years ago), when the United Nations General Assembly passed Resolution 2034 in 1965 to assist victims of countries affected by earthquakes.

traditional environmental knowledge

Understanding environmental cues has become one of the most promising areas of research in earthquake prediction. Animals’ seismic sense can sometimes predict an earthquake weeks in advance. Many different families and classes of animals react to an incoming earthquake—dogs, birds, snakes, cows, elephants, and more. They leave their nests hours or days before an earthquake strikes, and in some cases dogs have been known to become agitated, bark, or even run away before an earthquake strikes.

Recent research at the Max Planck Institute has focused on monitoring changes in the behavior of animals known to have an intuition or “seismic sense” that precedes an earthquake. Scientists are attaching motion sensors to animals to detect any changes in their movements or behavior as a way of collecting data that might be available for analysis in the event of an earthquake.

Traditional stories

The indigenous people of the Pacific Northwest live on the San Juan Fault and have had experiences with earthquakes. There are two stories that have been passed down about earthquakes with drawings depicting points in the story.

This is a story about earthquake foot where a dancer falls into a drum and gets earthquake foot, and every time his foot touches the ground, there are tremors. This story, as it explains, teaches us to be aware of the possibility of earthquakes and tsunamis recurring, and that we are part of the earth's process.

The Earthquake Mask is a hereditary possession of certain families in the Haida Nation who are responsible for the ceremonies and the mask. The mask is designed so that the eyebrows and mouth move during the dance and is said to tell us when the earth is moving.

These stories, through art and oral history, are important to understanding more about prophecy.

Indigenous practices near the epicenter of the 2004 tsunami that followed an earthquake saved many lives. Only seven people died out of the 78,000 people killed in the tsunami.

Oral traditions consisting of stories and songs carrying messages from early tsunami experience have made the locals on Simeulue Island aware of tsunami predictions. Oral stories and songs taught people that when an earthquake occurs, they should go to the coast and watch the tide. If low tide or tidal wave occurs shortly after the earthquake, they should run to higher ground as the low tide will be followed by giant waves.

prediction

Scientists are urging this field to work with indigenous peoples and use traditional knowledge to predict earthquakes to save lives. As Western science recognizes that earthquakes are never predicted, and as we cause more earthquakes, and experience more damage and loss of life due to earthquakes, it is imperative to leverage the fields of knowledge that can predict earthquakes. Fields working together (such as Western and indigenous sciences) can begin to prepare for the certainty of the next earthquake. Preparing the community to be in closer contact with animals and their environments by observing the behaviors of animals including dogs, cats, and birds, may bring us a little closer to being able to predict the next earthquake.

To read more articles by Professor Sutton go to: https://profvictoria.substack.com/

Professor Victoria Sutton (Lumby) is a faculty professor of law at Texas Tech University. In 2005, Sutton became a founding member of the National Congress of American Indians and the Policy Advisory Board of the National Congress of American Indians Policy Center, positioning the Native American community to work and lead on policy issues affecting Native communities in the United States.

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