Could Florida have a major earthquake in the next 100 years?

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Florida is not commonly affected by earthquakes. As the world's climate evolves, is it likely that Florida will experience a major earthquake in the next 100 years?

Could Florida have a major earthquake?

Florida is one of those lucky states that doesn’t get earthquakes very often, like Michigan and the upper Midwest. But it does happen. In fact, Midwesterners were surprised last Friday (Aug. 2), when the U.S. Geological Survey confirmed a magnitude 2.9 earthquake centered in Lake Michigan. Experts reported the quake struck around 9:18 a.m. EST, and the quake’s location was about 24 miles east-southeast of Sturgeon Bay, Wisconsin. The latest quake was small, at a magnitude 2.9, but some residents on the Wisconsin side of Lake Michigan said they felt it.

So why are earthquakes so rare in Florida? “Earthquakes in Florida are extremely rare because there are no active fault zones or plate boundaries,” Amanda Holley, a meteorologist with WFLA Max Defender 8, told WFLA.com. “The closest fault line to Florida runs through the Caribbean Sea, north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic and south of Cuba toward Guatemala.”

What are the chances of Florida experiencing a major earthquake like the one in the Midwest? It’s certainly possible that Florida could experience a devastating earthquake in the next 100 years, but don’t worry, it’s highly unlikely. Of course, our region doesn’t have the same risks as places like California or Alaska. But a recent report from USGS.gov experts shows the odds of a major earthquake occurring across the United States.

About 75% of the United States could experience a “damaging earthquake” in the coming years, according to a U.S. Geological Survey study by more than 50 scientists and engineers. To conduct the study, they used the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) to “create a color-coded map that identifies the most likely locations for damaging earthquakes based on insights from seismic studies, historical geological data, and the latest data collection techniques.” The study also noted that earthquakes are already a reality in much of the United States, with “37 U.S. states experiencing earthquakes greater than magnitude 5 in the past 200 years, highlighting a long history of seismic activity across this country.”

Now, let’s look at how likely Florida is to have a devastating earthquake in the next 100 years. According to the study, the chance of a minor or larger devastating earthquake in the next 100 years is 5% or less in most areas of Florida. As you get closer to the Florida Panhandle, that chance increases to 5% to 25%. So, either way, it’s not a high risk, but if you’re in an area like Tallahassee, that risk is higher. According to the map, the states with the highest risk are primarily California and Alaska.

Of course, you can’t predict an earthquake. It’s not like seeing rain clouds rolling in. But by investigating faults and past earthquakes, scientists are able to determine the likelihood and magnitude of future earthquakes. So that’s useful information.

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Ann Erickson began her radio career shortly after graduating from Michigan State University and has worked on the air in Detroit, Flint, Toledo, Lansing and beyond. As someone who loves rock, metal and alternative music, she fell in love with radio right away and hasn’t looked back. When she’s not working, Ann makes her own music with her band, Upon Wings, and loves cheering on her favorite Detroit and Michigan sports teams, especially the Lions and MSU football. Ann is also an award-winning journalist whose stories have been published in a variety of national publications. You can also listen to her weekend specials on WRIF.

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