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Seismologists in Japan have warned residents of a “huge earthquake” in the future. Here's what it means

Seismologists in Japan have warned residents of a “huge earthquake” in the future. Here's what it means

 


Japanese scientists say the country should prepare for a potential “super-earthquake” that could kill hundreds of thousands of people, although they stressed the warning does not mean a massive quake is imminent.

The Japan Meteorological Agency's warning is the first issued under new rules put in place after the 2011 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster that killed about 18,500 people.

What does he say?

The Japan Meteorological Agency warned in its “major earthquake alert” that “if a major earthquake occurs in the future, it will cause strong shaking and huge tsunami waves.”

“The probability of a new major earthquake occurring is higher than normal, but this is not an indication that a major earthquake will definitely occur within a specific period of time,” she added.

The consultation concerns the Nankai Basin subduction zone between two tectonic plates in the Pacific Ocean, which has been hit by major earthquakes in the past.

What is the Nankai Basin?

The marine basin is 800 kilometers long, extending from Shizuoka – west of Tokyo – to the southern tip of Kyushu Island.

It has been the site of devastating earthquakes of magnitude eight or nine every century or two.

So-called “mega-earthquakes,” which often occur in pairs, are known to trigger dangerous tsunamis along Japan's southern coast.

In 1707, all parts of the Nankai Trough erupted simultaneously, triggering an earthquake that remains the second strongest earthquake recorded in the country.

This earthquake, which also caused the recent eruption of Mount Fuji, was followed by two strong earthquakes in the Nankai region in 1854, and then two earthquakes in 1944 and 1946.

When could a major earthquake happen?

The Japanese government has previously said that the probability of a major earthquake of magnitude 8 or 9 occurring along the Nankai Trough is about 70 percent in the next 30 years.

In a worst-case scenario, experts estimate that 300,000 lives could be lost, and some engineers say the damage could reach $13 trillion, with infrastructure destroyed.

The massive destruction caused by the 2011 Japan earthquake and tsunami. (ABC News: Yumi Asada)

“The history of major Nankai earthquakes is compellingly frightening,” geologists Kyle Bradley and Judith A. Hubbard wrote in their newsletter Earthquake Insights.

They explained that “predicting an earthquake is impossible, but the occurrence of one earthquake usually increases the likelihood of another earthquake occurring.”

“The future Great Nankai Earthquake is certainly the most anticipated earthquake in history – the original definition of a major earthquake.”

How worried should people be?

Japan is reminding citizens living in quake zones to take common precautions, from securing furniture to knowing the location of the nearest evacuation shelter.

A woman cries as she sits in the devastated city of Natori after the 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan. (Reuters/Asahi Shimbun)

Many households in the country also keep a disaster kit on hand, containing bottled water, long-lasting foods, a flashlight, a radio, and other practical items.

Japan has “one of the best” earthquake monitoring systems in the world, says Professor Megan Miller, a seismologist at the Australian National University.

“They have fairly densely spaced instruments, including seismometers that record the vibrations of the ground, that can tell us more about why faults rupture, where they rupture,” she told ABC News.

“And then they can continue to monitor this and issue an early warning as well.”

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In short, there is no need to panic.

Mr Bradley and Ms Hubbard said there was “a small possibility” that Thursday's 7.1 magnitude quake was a precursor to a larger quake.

“One challenge is that even when the risk of a second earthquake is high, it is always still low,” they said.

“For example, in California the rule of thumb is that any earthquake has about a 5 percent chance of being a foreshock.”

AFP/ABC

Sources

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2/ https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-09/explaining-japan-megaquake-warning/104206724

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