New Zealand unlikely to see a major earthquake, but risks exist – Earthquake World

A 7.1-magnitude earthquake in Japan this week has raised fears of a “super-quake”. Photo: Kota Kiriyama/AFP

A seismologist said New Zealand was unlikely to experience a major earthquake like the one Japan put on high alert for, but a smaller quake could be more destructive.

Japan's Meteorological Agency issued its first-ever warning of a major earthquake around the country's southern Pacific coast on Friday after a 7.1-magnitude quake struck.

A 5.3-magnitude earthquake struck Tokyo and eastern parts of Japan.

Giant earthquakes of magnitude 9.0 or greater occur when two plates push against each other.

Earthquakes with a magnitude of 7 to 7.9 are classified as major earthquakes, while earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 to 8.9 are recorded as great earthquakes.

USGS seismologist John Restau said the Hikurangi area on the North Island was unlikely to cause a major earthquake.

Hikurangi subduction zone off the east coast. Image: Courtesy of GeoNet

“The big threat [there] But this may be the only place in the world where there is a large population center located directly above one of these subduction zones.

John Restau said the Hikurangi quake could still cause an 8.5 magnitude quake, which would be much more destructive than a major quake because the fault line runs under the Wellington and Wairarapa regions.

“But you don’t even need to talk about subduction zones – when the Alpine Fault or the Wellington Fault eventually breaks, there will be aftershocks across major population centres, and they could be just as devastating.”

He said the first warning of a major earthquake in Japan was likely to be precautionary, although evidence suggests there is a greater chance of a major quake.

He added that the possibility of Japan being hit by another major earthquake is five percent.

“What [the Japanese government] “What is being said now is that the probability of an earthquake of similar or larger magnitude has increased, which is indeed true. The most likely time for a large earthquake to occur is immediately after a single earthquake.”

A 7.2-magnitude earthquake struck Japan two days before the massive 9.1-magnitude Tohoku earthquake and tsunami that killed nearly 20,000 people in 2011, Ristau said.

“Maybe that's what prompted them to issue the warning they issued.” [this week]”.”

The strongest earthquake ever recorded was the massive 1960 Valdivia earthquake off the coast of Chile, which had an estimated magnitude of 9.5, he said.

If he were in the area in Japan where a major earthquake warning was issued, Ristau said, “he might have gone on with his daily life, but he would still have the idea that this is a possibility.”

“Perhaps this is a good time to check your earthquake supplies, and make sure you are prepared in case this happens.”

He added that it is reasonable for people living in a country like Japan or New Zealand to have supplies anyway, and to know what to do in the event of a major earthquake or tsunami warning.

“Cover yourself, and if there is strong or prolonged shaking around the coast, it could mean a tsunami. Whether it is strong or prolonged, get away.”

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