DVIDS – News – Understanding the 'Megaquake' Hype

Japanese seismologists are urging the nation to prepare for the possibility of a future “super-quake” that could kill hundreds of thousands. It’s important to note, however, that they stress that this does not mean such a catastrophic event is imminent. The alert issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency on August 9 marks the first of its kind under new protocols established after the devastating 2011 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster, which killed some 18,500 people. Alerts like this are designed to remind people to prepare for disasters, whatever they may be.

What is the warning of a “huge earthquake”?

The Japan Meteorological Agency's “Major Earthquake Warning” warns that a major earthquake in the future could cause severe shaking and trigger a large tsunami. Although the probability of a major earthquake is currently higher than usual, the warning makes clear that this does not guarantee that a major earthquake will occur within a specific time frame.

These warnings focus on the Nankai Zone, a subduction zone in the Pacific Ocean where two tectonic plates meet. This area has been the site of historically large earthquakes.

Understanding the Nankai Basin and Earthquakes

The Nankai Trough stretches 800 kilometers from Shizuoka in Japan (west of Tokyo) to the southern tip of Kyushu Island beneath the main island of Honshu. The basin has been the source of devastating earthquakes, often as large as 8 or 9 on the Richter scale, that occur roughly every century or two. These so-called “megaquakes” traditionally strike in pairs and have a history of triggering dangerous tsunamis along Japan’s southern coast.

It is worth noting that in 1707, the entire Nankai Basin erupted simultaneously, causing the second-strongest earthquake recorded in the country and leading to the last eruption of Mount Fuji. Subsequent major earthquakes in the region occurred in 1854, 1944 and 1946. According to the Japanese government, there is a 70 percent chance of another major earthquake of magnitude 8-9 hitting the Nankai Basin within the next 30 years. In a worst-case scenario, experts estimate that 300,000 people could die, with damage potentially reaching $13 trillion as infrastructure collapses.

“The history of Nankai’s major earthquakes is compellingly frightening,” geologists Kyle Bradley and Judith A. Hubbard wrote in their Earthquake Insights newsletter, the Associated Press reported. While earthquakes are impossible to predict, they noted that one quake often increases the likelihood of another. That’s why we’re where we are now with all the talk of “megaquakes.”

Should you be worried?

Japan urges residents in earthquake-prone areas to take standard precautions, such as securing furniture and knowing the location of the nearest evacuation shelter. It is important to note that most areas of Japan experience some form of seismic activity from time to time. Many households also keep disaster kits that contain essentials such as bottled water, long-lasting foods, a flashlight, and a radio. These are all good practices regardless of any advisory.

Despite all the hype, experts say there’s absolutely no reason to panic. Bradley and Hubbard say there’s only a “low probability” that the recent 7.1-magnitude quake was an earthquake. “One of the challenges is that even when the risk of a second quake is high, it’s always low,” they say. In California, for example, the rule of thumb is that any given earthquake has about a five percent chance of being an earthquake.

However, it is a great reminder to keep a disaster kit ready and waiting for you, just in case an emergency arises.

Photo Date: 08.10.2024 Publish Date: 08.11.2024 19:08 Story ID: 478319 Location: JP Web Views: 33 Downloads: 0 Public Domain

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