Warning of a huge earthquake in Japan puts the country under pressure

A red flag warning against swimming after a government warning of a “mega-wave”, at Shonan Bellmare Park beach, Hiratsuka, Japan, August 10, 2024. STR / AFP

On Tuesday, August 13, the Japan Meteorological Agency maintained its warning of a “super-terror” earthquake, raising questions about the predictability of earthquakes and causing widespread anxiety across the archipelago. Some began stockpiling essential supplies, while others cancelled trips to the affected areas. Concerns were compounded by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s decision to cancel a trip to Central Asia in order to “prepare for a strong earthquake.” [his] “Responsibility for crisis management.”

The one-week warning was issued following a 7.1-magnitude earthquake that struck Miyazaki Prefecture (southwest) on August 8. The disaster injured 14 people and caused some material damage, but the epicenter was in the Nankai region. The Japan Meteorological Agency fears a major earthquake with a magnitude greater than 8 could occur in this fault zone, where the Philippine Plate dives beneath the Eurasian Plate and stretches for about 700 kilometers from Suruga Bay (central Japan) to eastern Kyushu (southwest Japan). Warnings have been issued for 707 municipalities.

Since then, Japanese have ramped up their precautionary purchases, causing a shortage. Popular products on e-commerce sites like Rakuten include portable toilets, canned goods, rice and water. In addition, stores in Tokyo are limiting water purchases to one bottle per person.

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The alert affects the tourism sector as Japan enters the traditional holiday week of Bon – a Buddhist period of ancestors' remembrance – which is punctuated by many festivals.

Tourist resorts are suffering from flight cancellations, and some cities have canceled events. This was the case for the fireworks display scheduled for August 10 at Shirarahama Beach (central Japan). Beaches have also been closed to swimmers, such as Hiratsuka Beach in Kanagawa Prefecture, south of Tokyo, and Oshima Beach in Miyazaki.

The warning has led to a wave of false information on social media. Initially, the messages claimed that the massive quake would occur on August 10, then the date was changed to August 11, and now it is said to occur on August 14. Some even interpreted the shape of the clouds as a sign of impending disaster.

“After a major earthquake, claims of ‘earthquake cloud’ and conspiracy theories about earthquakes caused by natural factors are spreading. People need to take a deep breath and avoid spreading such lies,” said Kentaro Araki, a researcher at the Japan Meteorological Agency.

According to scientists, strong earthquakes occur on the Nankai Fault on average every 100 to 150 years. The 1707 earthquake is considered one of the strongest ever recorded in the archipelago, and was responsible for the most recent eruption of Mount Fuji. The most recent earthquakes, with magnitudes of 7.1 and 8, occurred in 1944 and 1946.

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