Seismologists learn the warning signs of a 'big one.' When should they tell the public?

Research by geophysicist Danny Brothers of the U.S. Geological Survey suggests that there have likely been at least 30 major earthquakes over the past 14,200 years in parts of the Cascadia subduction zone, which runs along the U.S. West Coast from northern California to northern Vancouver Island. A major earthquake there is expected to occur at least once every 450-500 years, on average.

But for years Cascadia has been quiet; some scientists say that’s because much of it is “bound” and under increasing pressure. When it explodes, a chunk of seafloor will be pushed forward—perhaps dozens of feet or more. The vertical displacement of the seafloor will send a tsunami toward shore.

“This will be the worst natural disaster in our country’s history,” said Robert Ezell, director of Washington State Emergency Management.

For seismologists, the key question now is how to predict such violence in the future. Rapidly developing research suggests that faults like the Cascadia and Nankai may send out warning signals: a smaller earthquake as a foreshock, or a faint groan that can only be detected by sensors, which scientists call a slow slip event.

In Tobin's nightmare scenario, the Cascadia Fault suddenly lets out this kind of groan. So – what do we do?

A major earthquake in Cascadia is expected to injure more than 100,000 people, assuming the quake occurs when few people are on the beach. The tremor would last five minutes, and tsunami waves would hit the coast for ten hours.

The inland hills will turn to ice, destroying roads and bridges. About 620,000 buildings will be seriously damaged or collapsed, including an estimated 100 hospitals and 2,000 schools.

“We are not ready,” Ezel said frankly.

Washington state advises residents they may have to fend for themselves against the elements for two weeks.

“It would be like neighbors taking care of neighbors,” Ezel said.

The map of the Pacific Ring of Fire — where tectonic plates converge to form subduction zones and volcanoes — leaves Ezel particularly uneasy.

“Over the past 50 to 60 years, you'll find that every subduction zone fault has undergone major rifting — except Cascadia,” he added.

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