Approaching the Holy Grail of Earthquake Prediction

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While no one wishes for earthquakes, without them it would be impossible to understand these phenomena and they would continue to threaten an unprepared society with the risks they entail.

Four years ago today, on August 18, 2020, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the central Philippines island of Masbate was struck by a 6.6-magnitude earthquake centered in the southern coastal town of Cataingan. The quake killed at least one person and damaged a building near the epicenter. Seventeen years ago, on February 15, 2003, a 6.3-magnitude earthquake struck the same island. The epicenter was less than 40 kilometers northwest of the 2020 quake, in the town of Osun.

Both quakes were triggered by the same fault, the Masbate segment of the infamous Philippine Fault, which has produced several deadly earthquakes in the recent past. Since the onset of mechanically recorded earthquakes in the 1970s, the strongest such quake on the Philippine Fault was the 7.8 magnitude North Luzon earthquake on July 16, 1990. That quake, triggered by the Digdig segment of the Philippine Fault that crossed Nueva Ecija and Aurora provinces in northern Luzon, was 40 times more powerful than the 2020 Masbate earthquake, which caused massive devastation in Luzon, killing more than 2,000 people and destroying infrastructure worth billions of dollars.

Two consecutive earthquakes in Masbate within a short period of time (17 years) along the same segment of fault is an extremely rare phenomenon, almost defying current understanding of earthquake dynamics. When a fault breaks, the earthquake that generates that fault is a manifestation of the energy released along that fault. The fault is not expected to move again anytime soon, until enough stress has built up on it, which could take hundreds or even thousands of years, not 17 years.

If you can't beat them, study them!

At the graduating class of the College of Science at the University of the Philippines Diliman, held on July 27, 2024, two students from the National Institute of Geosciences at the University of the Philippines were honored for their work toward a better understanding of earthquake processes in general, and the behavior of the Masbate segment of the Philippine Fault in particular.

Abigail Manahan, who graduated with honors, was awarded the Leticia Ramos Shahani Award for Best Undergraduate Thesis in Geology for her work titled: “Geomorphology and Deformation of the Masbate Segment of the Philippine Fault: Insights from Ground Rupture and Riedel Shear in Barangay Matugnao, Palanas, Masbate.” For his part, Deo Carlo Yamas was nominated for the Most Outstanding Master’s Alumni Award for his master’s thesis titled: “Surface Rupture and Fault Characteristics Associated with the 2020 Magnitude 6.6 Masbate Earthquake.”

Abigail and Deo have demonstrated that catastrophic natural processes such as earthquakes can be transformed into research aimed at understanding such phenomena in themselves. Using a three-legged coconut tree that was split twice by the 2003 and 2020 Masbate earthquakes as the centerpiece of their studies, Abigail and Deo are contributing to the advancement of knowledge in the field of earthquake prediction, the ultimate goal of most, if not all, seismologists around the world. Unfortunately, while no one wishes for earthquakes, without them it would be impossible to understand these phenomena, and they would continue to threaten an unprepared society with the risks they entail. – Rappler.com

Dr. Mario A. Aurelio is a Professor at the National Institute of Geosciences, University of the Philippines, and Head of the Structural Geology and Tectonics Laboratory at the National Institute of Seismology, University of the Philippines. He mentors students interested in the study of earthquakes.

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